Welcome to Zeroing In by Speed & Scale, where we cut through the noise to deliver a data-driven update on progress toward net zero.

DECARBONIZATION TRENDS FOR 2025: Nat Bullard’s annual presentation is a soup-to-nuts overview of global decarbonization trends. Bullard’s deck numbers two hundred slides, but three of them in particular caught our attention.

1. Aerosols: Tiny airborne particles with a huge impact on climate. They come in various forms, from wildfire smoke and sea spray to everyday air pollution. The light-colored varieties, including sulfur dioxide, reflect sunlight and have a cooling effect. Slide 20 of Nat’s presentation highlights the role these aerosols have played in mitigating warming over the past 150 years. Since 1850, global mean temperatures have risen by 1.3 degrees Celsius; without aerosols, the increase would have verged on two degrees Celsius.

   Net, net: While aerosol pollution is detrimental to human health, it also helps to cool the planet. In fact, it more than counters the warming impact of methane (.28 degrees C).  As aerosol emissions ebb, cutting greenhouse gases is even more important.    

2. Industry: As we outline in Objective 5, Clean Up Industry, the transition to a net-zero economy will demand vastly more production of green building materials (aluminum, cement, steel), and green fuels (ammonia, shipping fuel, and aviation fuel). Drawing on data from the Mission Possible Partnership’s Global Project Tracker, Bullard’s slide 143 provides a progress update on green industrial projects.

   Net, net: Sustainable aviation fuel, driven by government mandates in the EU and by readily available technology, is currently leading this sector. Clean aluminum and ammonia facilities are also operational, with more in development. While commercial-scale clean cement and steel plants are not yet up and running, numerous projects in the pipeline have already secured a final investment decision (FID) (AKA funding) or are under construction. We need increased government support, corporate offtake, and financing for these facilities.

3. AI Energy Needs: Northern Virginia is at the epicenter of rising electricity demand from data centers and AI.

   Net, net: As shown on slide 174 of Nat’s presentation, demand from data centers in Virginia has surged by 9x over the past 11 years and is projected to rise another 5x by 2045. The state’s grid is primarily powered by natural gas (54 percent), and nuclear energy (31 percent), with renewables (11 percent) and coal and petroleum accounting for the remainder. Virginia illustrates the need for a massive expansion of energy supply to keep up with demand from AI and data centers. Further scaling of renewables is a prime candidate to help meet that need.  

You can also listen to Nat discuss the deck on the Catalyst Podcast here.

OKRs in the News

🚗 1.0 – Electrify Transportation

• Hyundai Juices Up Three-Wheeled EVs: Hyundai and TVS Motor unveiled electric rickshaw concepts that are custom-built for India’s tough roads and volatile climate. Priced at around $3,500 U.S., they feature a height-adjustable chassis for monsoons, water-resistant interiors, heat-reducing roof paint, and reinforced structures for pothole resilience. The rapidly expanding market for two- and three-wheeler EVs is displacing over a million barrels of oil each day (Hyundai).

• Battery Boon: Growth in the global battery industry has exploded, with global battery sales for EVs rising 25 percent, to nearly 18 million units, and grid-connected batteries growing by 55 percent year-over-year. Driven by Chinese overcapacity and industrial policy shifts, battery prices dropped to a record low of $115/kWh. The downside: Due to higher interest rates and geopolitical tensions, investment has slowed (Volta Foundation).

💡 2.0 – Decarbonize the Grid

• EU Solar Shines: Solar power overtook coal in the EU for the first time in 2024, rising 22 percent year-over-year to account for 11 percent of the power mix. (Coal, meanwhile, fell to 10 percent.) Wind and solar have driven big fossil fuel reductions, cutting EU power sector emissions to less than half their 2007 peak and avoiding €59 billion in fossil fuel imports since 2019. To meet 2030 targets, however, the transition must accelerate (Ember Energy).

• Power Struggle: A new article in The Economist laments that less than three percent of all power crosses a border. The article argues that a connectivity boost in the world’s grids could lessen the need for redundant backup plants, allow electricity to flow from low-cost to high-cost regions, and make renewable energy investments more viable by preventing excess power from going to waste. Greater interconnection also strengthens energy reliability, allowing countries to import power when domestic supply is low (The Economist).

• China’s Carbon Crunch: China’s carbon emissions rose 0.8 percent in 2024 as surging energy demand outpaced record clean power installations. Demand for fossil fuels rose early in the year due both to rising consumption and a sharp drop in hydropower from prolonged drought. Even so, emissions fell below 2023 levels over the last 10 months of the year, signaling potential progress toward peaking emissions before Beijing’s 2030 target (CREA).

• Coal Hard Truths: Hitting a record high in 2023, coal remained the largest single source of CO2 emissions despite global decarbonization efforts, with the IEA predicting an additional one percent increase in 2024. Stepchange’s inaugural podcast explores coal’s historic role in powering the steam engine and shaping economic superpowers, as well as its dark legacy of child labor, deadly mining conditions, urban pollution disasters, and a lasting impact on climate and labor movements (Stepchange).

🐄 3.0 – Fix Food

• Milking the System: Journalist Jack Shafer criticizes the dairy industry’s rent-seeking push for H.R. 1462, a federal law to prohibit plant-based drinks from using the label “milk,” as a move to stifle competition and hoard market share rather than innovate. He argues the industry’s move mirrors past tactics and blocks the growth of more sustainable food choices. Alt-milks generally have a lower carbon footprint than dairy (Washington Post).

• Rice to the Climate Challenge: Scientists have developed a new strain of rice that emits up to 70 percent less methane. The breakthrough addresses a leading source of global agricultural emissions, which in total contribute 12 percent of human-generated methane. Using traditional cultivation methods, the researchers identified key root compounds—low fumarate and high ethanol profiles—that reduce methane-producing microbes in soil (GEN).

🌳 4.0 – Protect Nature

• Rats Run Wild: Rat populations are exploding in major cities worldwide, with climate change as a key driver. Warmer temperatures extend breeding seasons and food availability in places like Washington, D.C., which has the fastest-growing rat population in the U.S. Without stronger prevention strategies, experts warn, the problem will only get worse in a warming world (CNN).

• Climate Costs Hit Home: As rising insurance costs and extreme weather risks drive homeowners from vulnerable areas, climate change will lower U.S. home values by nearly $1.5 trillion in 2055. Some regions, including Ocean County in New Jersey and Fresno County in California, are projected to see falling populations. Others, notably Houston and Miami, will likely continue to grow despite higher insurance premiums, as people relocate to relatively safer areas nearby rather than abandoning entire regions (WSJ).

🧱 5.0 – Clean Up Industry

• Turning Up the Heat (Pump): Over a 12-month period ending in September 2024, ultra-efficient, emissions-cutting heat pumps outsold gas furnaces by 28 percent in the U.S. Altogether, 3.8 million heat pump units were sold, 55 percent of them electric water heaters. The growing market share for these technologies will play a crucial role in our campaign to reach net zero (RMI).

• Latest AI Forecast: RAND’s latest forecast projects that AI data centers could require up to 68 GW of additional power by 2027 and 327 GW by 2030, nearly quadrupling global data center power demand in 2022​. This accelerating growth raises concerns over grid capacity, decarbonization efforts, and U.S. competitiveness. Power constraints could push AI infrastructure abroad, potentially weakening U.S. national security and increasing the country’s reliance on fossil fuels​ (RAND).

🧹 6.0 – Remove Carbon

• Breath of Fresh Funding: Arizona State University has secured more than $11 million to develop a Southwest Regional Direct Air Capture Hub, which aims to remove one million metric tons of CO2 annually. Spanning Arizona, New Mexico, and Utah, the project will use solar and wind energy to power carbon removal technologies while fostering local job growth and economic development​ (Arizona State University).

  Lego Builds a Greener Future: Lego is committing $2.7M U.S. toward high-quality carbon removal projects. The company is partnering with Climate Impact Partners and ClimateFi to invest in biochar, enhanced rock weathering, and reforestation initiatives. These efforts aim to catapult the carbon removal industry while restoring over a million acres of forest in the Lower Mississippi Valley (The Toy Book).

🏛️ 7.0 – Win Politics And Policy

• Power Shift: President Donald Trump’s plan to roll back clean energy incentives threatens 800,000 new U.S. jobs and nearly a thousand factories and could further increase China’s dominance in solar, EVs, and batteries. With $2 trillion in projected economic gains at stake, President Trump’s move to reverse course risks higher energy costs and a weakened U.S. manufacturing sector (New York Times).

• Climate of Doubt: Global opposition to climate policies has doubled over the last 35 years, according to researchers, with 548 counter-climate organizations now active in 51 countries. Once driven by fossil fuel interests, these groups now position their resistance around cultural identity and government overreach (PLOS One).

• No Rush to Drill: While President Trump’s pro-fossil fuel policies are catnip for oil companies, executives say they won’t expand drilling unless prices rise significantly. Instead, the industry will prioritize profitability and infrastructure expansion, with a focus on long-term permitting reforms for pipelines over short-term production surges (New York Times).

🏃 8.0 – Turn Movements Into Action

• Davos Doubles Down: With President Donald Trump pulling the U.S. out of the Paris Agreement (again), world leaders at Davos are vowing to push forward on climate commitments, with EU officials and corporate executives reaffirming their long-term sustainability goals. Global business and political leaders are insisting the clean energy transition is “unstoppable”—with or without U.S. federal support (New York Times).

• Climate Goals Falling Short: The 2025 CDP Corporate Health Check finds that only 10 percent of major companies are meaningfully integrating sustainability into their business models, with just 1 percent reaching the highest level of climate action. While transparency has improved—79 percent disclose some Scope 3 emissions—barely one third of companies are on track to meet their own emissions targets (CDP).

Media Spotlight: First-Ever Super Bowl Ad on Climate Action

The first-ever Super Bowl ad on climate action made history—and people took notice. Recognizing a powerful message about the future we’re leaving our children, the New York Times ranked this ScienceMoms and Potential Energy spot #8 out of 42 commercial spots. The ad is a stark reminder that the climate crisis isn’t some distant threat—it’s happening now, shaping the world today’s kids will inherit.

⚡ 9.0 – Innovate!

• AI’s Next Wave: Chinese startup DeepSeek’s breakthrough in AI efficiency has led some to predict a decline in energy demand. But history suggests the opposite: Cheaper, more powerful AI will drive energy consumption higher than ever. As AI scales beyond current constraints, the future of power grid emissions hinges on whether clean energy can keep pace with data center demands—or if fossil fuels will fill the gap (Climate Money).

• EAST to Beast: China’s Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak (EAST) set a new world record by sustaining high-confinement plasma for nearly 18 minutes, a major step toward viable fusion power. This breakthrough strengthens global fusion research, supporting future reactors like ITER and China’s Fusion Engineering Test Reactor in the quest for limitless clean energy (Phys.org).

💰 10.0 – Invest!

• Big Banks, Tiny Climate Gains: Despite small improvements, global banks remain far off track in shifting their financing toward clean energy. The ratio of low-carbon to fossil fuel financing stands at 0.89-to-1, far below the 4-to-1 ratio needed by 2030 to get on track to net zero. While BNP Paribas leads the pack with a ratio of better than 3-to-1, U.S. giants JPMorgan and Citigroup continue to heavily finance fossil fuels (Bloomberg).

• Bloomberg Steps Up for Paris Agreement: With the U.S. leaving the Paris Agreement for a second time, Michael Bloomberg and Bloomberg Philanthropies will fill the funding and reporting gaps left behind. Through America Is All In, a coalition of cities, states, and businesses, Bloomberg aims to drive climate leadership regardless of federal inaction (Bloomberg Philanthropies).

OKR Highlight

Venture capital and private equity have been crucial in scaling climate solutions, but 2024 has seen a 38 percent drop in climate-tech funding, falling to $32 billion, according to BNEF.

This marks a major pullback from the momentum built in recent years. Speed & Scale’s KR 10.3 calls for an annual $50 billion invested in climate tech startups. The milestone was reached ahead of schedule when funding peaked at $59 billion in 2021 and then sustained high levels through 2023.

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