From China’s first-ever absolute emissions cuts to record EV sales and a new wave of corporate climate action, this issue unpacks the pledges, politics, and breakthroughs shaping the race to net-zero.

NEW AND NOTABLE NDC: Reaching net zero will realistically hinge on a handful of countries that account for the lion’s share of greenhouse gas emissions. And so we paid close attention last week when the president of China–now the top emitter by far, at 30 percent of the global total–announced the country’s new Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to cut emissions by seven to ten percent by 2035.

China’s announcement marks its first commitment to make an absolute cut in emissions. (Past pledges focused on “carbon intensity,” or emissions per unit of output.) It’s also the first Chinese plan to mitigate emissions in all sectors and to apply to all greenhouse gases, not just carbon dioxide. The cautious percentage target, according to Li Shuo of the Asia Society Policy Institute, reflects the country’s economic slowdown as well as geopolitical turbulence. Nonetheless, he noted, Xi’s pledge marks “a big psychological jump for the Chinese.”

For some climate advocates and analysts, Xi Jinping’s live video message at the UN Climate Summit 2025 was a disappointment. China’s new target is conservative, to say the least. Its ambition falls far short of the Paris Agreement goal to limit global warming “to well below 2 degrees [Celsius] above pre-industrial levels.” What’s more, Xi’s pledge to expand the share of renewables on China’s power grid to 30 percent by 2035–and to increase wind and solar power by 6x over 2020 levels–would equate to “a significant slowdown” of the country’s dramatic recent progress.

But when it comes to the clean energy transition, China has a well-known track record for under-promising and over-delivering. The clean tech juggernaut has already surpassed its 2030 targets for installed capacity of wind and solar, and for sales of new EVs. It appears that China’s overall greenhouse gas emissions may have already peaked, more than five years ahead of schedule. And in a period when the U.S. continues to retrench from climate action, Xi’s message to the world stands out: “Green and low-carbon transition is the trend of our time.”

OKRs in the News

🚗 1.0 – Electrify Transportation

• Race to the Rebate: As buyers rushed to capture now-expired federal tax credits worth up to $7,500, U.S. EV sales surged past 356,000 units in Q3 of 2025, setting a new all-time record. With incentives gone, analysts warn of a sharp drop in future sales, prompting GM and other automakers to scale back production as unsold inventory threatens to pile up (Tech Brew).

• Driving the Shift: Despite negative policy changes in the U.S., the long-term global trajectory for EVs continues to strengthen. On Zero, BloombergNEF’s Colin McKerracher reports that EV adoption is soaring in such emerging markets as Nepal (70 percent of new sales), Thailand (60 percent), and Vietnam (40 percent). As falling battery costs make them the cheapest option, McKerracher says EVs now displace over two million barrels of oil per day and could lead global road fuel demand to peak before 2030 (Bloomberg).

• Charge It to Experience: “Learning by doing” drove 42 percent of EV battery cost declines between 2013 and 2020—more than any other factor, including industry-wide tech upgrades. By reinforcing subsidies with domestic production incentives, countries like China helped local firms gain practical experience to scale faster and cheaper, creating a global feedback loop where each new EV sold reduces costs for the next (Stanford).

Podcast Drop🎙️

Exciting news: Speed & Scale has teamed up with TED to launch a new podcast! Hosted by Anjali Grover and Ryan Panchadsaram, Speed & Scale uncovers the biggest climate wins around the world, often hiding in plain sight. From scaling wind energy in Texas to stopping the buildout of petrochemical plants in Cancer Alley, these are the stories of progress happening right now, told by the everyday heroes who are changing our world as we know it.

Listen to the first episode on how Texas came to be the largest wind producer in America, now available on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

🐄 3.0 – Fix Food

• Beefing Up Resilience: McDonald’s USA is investing $200 million over seven years to scale regenerative ranching across four million acres in 38 states. The company aims to cut water use, restore grasslands, and shore up rancher livelihoods while securing its beef supply chain. Backed by USDA, NFWF, major suppliers, and Coca-Cola, the effort ties the chain’s long-term success to sustainable ranching (Supply Chain Digital).

• From Manure to Methane Cuts: As Denmark moves to tax livestock emissions starting in 2030, it’s also investing heavily to help farmers avoid paying by cutting methane with feed additives and manure-to-energy pyrolysis. The goal is to drive down agricultural emissions as Denmark works toward a 70 percent cut in overall emissions by 2030 (Bloomberg).

🌳 4.0 – Protect Nature

• Killer Smoke Rising: New research in Nature projects that wildfire smoke could kill up to 71,000 people annually in the U.S., a 73 percent jump from recent levels. By mid-century, the toll would total 1.9 million added deaths. The study warns that smoke toxins linger for years and may become the costliest U.S. climate-driven health impact (Nature).

🧱 5.0 – Clean Up Industry

• Concrete Climate Action: Amazon, Meta, and partners have launched the Sustainable Concrete Buyers Alliance (SCoBA) to pool corporate demand for low-carbon concrete, which accounts for 8 percent of global CO₂ emissions. Using a book-and-claim system, members will fund clean cement production without direct purchases. The goal is to create market conditions to scale breakthrough technologies for a net-zero construction sector (Data Center Dynamics).

• Emissions Data Blackout: The Trump Administration has proposed ending the Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program, which has required 8,000 major U.S. facilities to disclose emissions since 2010. Amid broader U.S. data rollbacks, critics warn that dismantling this cornerstone of federal and global climate policy would cripple efforts to track and cut pollution amid broader U.S. data rollbacks (New York Times).

• Laying the Foundation: Microsoft has announced its investment in low-carbon cement producer Fortera, along with a green steel procurement agreement with Stegra. These partnerships aim to slash emissions from two of the most carbon-intensive materials, cement and steel, by up to 60 percent and 90 percent, respectively, helping Microsoft drive down supply chain emissions and meet its 2030 carbon-negative goal (Carbon Credits).

🧹 6.0 – Remove Carbon

• Below the Surface: Google has signed a deal with Vaulted Deep to permanently remove 50,000 tons of CO₂ by 2030 with a novel underground waste injection technology, certified by Isometric. The partnership also aims to develop new ways to quantify avoided methane emissions while driving local economic and environmental benefits (Google).

• Built From Thin Air: Aircapture is deploying its first direct air capture (DAC) system in Japan to provide AIZAWA Concrete with a clean, on-site CO₂ supply for use in concrete mineralization. The project aims to tackle Japan’s CO₂ shortages while cutting emissions and creating a scalable model for circular industrial decarbonization (Reuters).

🏛️ 7.0 – Win Politics And Policy

NOTE:  As of this writing, the U.S. government has shut down. Here’s a good guide from Politico: Government shutdown 2025: A guide to what’s still open, what’s closed and what’s fuzzy. And here’s a guide from Bloomberg more specific to climate: How the US Government Shutdown Impacts Climate Work.

• Pledging Progress: With new announcements from China, Russia, and Turkey at a UN climate summit in New York, half of global emissions are now covered by 2035 climate pledges. While this progress marks a milestone for the Paris Agreement’s ratchet mechanism, other major emitters, including India and Indonesia, have yet to formally submit their targets ahead of COP30 in Brazil, and the U.S. is now in the process of withdrawing altogether (Carbon Brief).

• U.S. at the UN: In his UN speech, President Trump called climate change a “con job,” mocked renewable energy, and attacked global climate agreements. The remarks drew backlash from global leaders and experts, who warned that the U.S. administration’s stance undermines clean energy progress and ignores the escalating costs of climate-driven disasters (New York Times).

🏃 8.0 – Turn Movements Into Action

• Sun Day Funday: Marking 55 years since the first Earth Day, climate advocates organized “Sun Day,” a nationwide celebration of solar energy featuring more than 450 events from house tours to EV parades. The grassroots movement highlights the rapid rise of renewables and aims to keep solar’s momentum shining through local action (New York Times).

• Votes & Volts: Virginia voters are demanding answers about skyrocketing electricity bills and the energy impact of the state’s booming data center industry. As calls grow for local permitting reform, community reinvestment, and grid resilience, the state is emerging as a bellwether for how AI-driven energy demand will shape U.S. politics and infrastructure (Axios).

• Faith in the Climate Fight: Marking the 10th anniversary of Laudato Si, a landmark papal encyclical, Pope Leo XIV delivered his first major climate address and reaffirmed the Church’s role in protecting the planet–and especially those most vulnerable to climate-linked crises. With a growing portfolio of sustainability initiatives, the Vatican continues to press its moral leadership on climate as political will falters elsewhere (New York Times).

⚡ 9.0 – Innovate!

• AI Meets Earth’s Core: Zanskar, a geothermal exploration startup, has discovered the most productive pumped geothermal well in the U.S. by using AI-trained models to reanalyze decades-old geological data. By unlocking overlooked conventional resources, the company aims to restart greenfield geothermal development and scale low-cost, clean baseload power across the Western U.S. (Heatmap).

• Fix the Tough Stuff: Slow Boring author Matthew Yglesias argues that climate advocates should pivot from a focus on easy wins to solving the hardest technical challenges, such as decarbonizing cement and steel, that still lack scalable solutions. Rather than asking voters to make material sacrifices, he calls for an innovation-first strategy that makes clean energy abundant, affordable, and politically durable (Slow Boring).

💰 10.0 – Invest!

• Insuring the Transition: GreenieRE Coalition and Trellis Climate have launched Vensurety, a new insurance platform that offers philanthropically backed bonds to help climate hardtech startups unlock capital and scale early projects. By reducing collateral requirements and de-risking deployment, the initiative aims to fill a critical financing gap and accelerate next-gen climate infrastructure (GreenieRE Coalition).

• China’s Clean Tech Lockout: A group of Western climate tech VCs returned from a China road trip convinced that key sectors—including batteries, solar, and wind—are now effectively uninvestable in the West due to China’s overwhelming dominance. As U.S. policy retreats and Europe stalls, investors say the race to scale early climate technologies is already won–and that any future success may require a collaboration with China (Bloomberg).

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