| Cooling is hard to come by in the world’s fastest-warming continent. |
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| | COOL IT: As Europe endures its fifth heatwave since May, it’s steering us to two tasks of huge urgency. The first is to expand air conditioning, ideally with planet-friendly technology, in places that don’t have enough of it. With global energy demand for “space cooling“ projected to rise by more than half over the next decade, the latest advanced heat pumps can boost AC efficiency by as much as 4x. The second imperative is to build an abundance of new clean energy, both to scale to rising global demand (including the electricity needed for more AC) and to stem the tide of global warming.
With weeks of sultry weather still in store, tens of thousands of people have been killed by record-breaking heat in Western Europe. Hundreds of thousands have lost their homes to wildfires in Spain and France alone. As an extreme El Nino gathers strength in the Pacific, the near-term outlook–from Britain and Germany to Canada to Southeast Asia–is for more of the same, or worse. How the world responds could have life-and-death implications for millions, even billions, of people.
To begin with, most countries need a lot more efficient, reliable cooling–which may be at odds with their built environment. Much of Europe, for example, uses “tilt-turn” windows. They’re better than American windows in nearly every respect–except for accommodating AC window units. With cooling options limited to costly and time-consuming retrofits for mini-splits or cumbersome indoor units, as Robinson Meyer noted, “some Europeans seem to see air conditioning as an exorbitant luxury.“
Another critical piece of the puzzle is a renewed international commitment to displace fossil fuels and their choking pollution. While follow-on policies have yet to take shape, and the European Union has regrettably weakened a range of climate targets, this summer’s crisis is prompting protests and debate and may just push leaders to act.
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| | | 🚗 1.0 – Electrify Transportation China Rising: Chinese brands took 9 percent of new car sales in Europe over the first half of this year, rising to 10 percent in May–a new high-water mark. While BYD and other established Chinese exporters are leading this market, new entrants like Xiaomi are targeting the premium car sector–where most European automakers earn their margins (Financial Times). Delhi’s Drive: Starting in 2027, newly registered three-wheelers and small trucks in Delhi must be electric, with two-wheelers coming under the same mandate in 2028. Moving beyond subsidies for EVs, the capital will be the first Indian city to actively phase out combustion vehicles. EVs already account for 13 percent of Delhi’s new vehicle sales against 8 percent nationally (Washington Post).
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| RENEWABLES RISING IN THE EAST: China has unveiled its latest five-year plan for the development of renewable energy, and it’s an electrostate showstopper. By 2030, the nation aims to add 370 gigawatts of new installed capacity of solar and wind, enough to power more than 70 million homes. At that point, renewables will account for 3,500 GW, or fully half of China’s power capacity.
The new plan is also noteworthy for characterizing wind and solar as “dependable,” “grid-friendly,” and “firm,” key elements for China’s energy security. In other words, this cleantech expansion won’t simply be a matter of greater scale; it will “enter a new stage” to make renewables a trusted alternative to fossil fuels. To avoid bottlenecks, China will develop enormous clean-energy bases in its northern regions, with ultra-high voltage lines to move generated power elsewhere.
While the plan may seem highly ambitious, history suggests it should be taken seriously. China previously committed to install 1,200 GW of wind and solar by 2030–and reached its target six years early.
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| | 💡 2.0 – Decarbonize the Grid Baseload Bet: China’s State Council approved eight new nuclear reactors across four provinces, in projects reportedly worth more than $25 billion. The approvals were spurred by an ambitious target of 110 GW of installed capacity by 2030. That would mark a 76 percent jump over 2025, though Beijing has missed prior targets after the Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011 and subsequent approval freeze (Bloomberg). Three and Counting: The world crossed 3 terawatts of installed solar this year, a monument to hockey-stick growth. Solar passed 100 gigawatts in 2012, its first terawatt in 2022, its second less than three years later, and its third in less than two more. This growth has been truly global, as the roster of countries with at least 1 gigawatt of installed solar grew to as many as 74 last year, up from 42 in 2020 (Bloomberg).
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| 🐄 3.0 – Fix Food Greener Pastures: Northern China has grown much wetter since the 1990s, per the government’s National Climate Center, turning desert around Tongliao into grassland and cornfield and helping expand China’s beef herd by one third since 2018. Beijing has capped beef imports with 55 percent over-quota tariffs, squeezing exporters in Argentina, Australia, and Brazil (New York Times). Grain of Doubt: A record-strength El Niño is set to depress global rice production for the first time in more than a decade, with U.S. output forecast to fall by more than half to 40-year lows. Although decades of irrigation and breeding investment have buffered many producers, a new study finds that models underestimate real-world losses–around 8 percent per degree Celsius of warming–by as much as half (Grist).
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| 🌳 4.0 – Protect Nature
Fingerprints on Fire: Climate change made the hot, dry conditions behind Spain’s record-sized wildfires 20 times more likely and doubled the odds of the weather driving France’s blazes, according to a World Weather Attribution rapid analysis. Southern Europe now averages about 25 extreme fire-weather days a year, up from roughly 10 in earlier decades (AP). Two Degrees: In what would be a planetary first, meteorologists now calculate there is more than one chance in three that monthly average global warming surpasses 2 degrees Celsius in early 2027. That threshold is widely seen as the upper limit for manageable climate change (Bloomberg).
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| 🧱 5.0 – Clean Up Industry Power Prices: European power prices run about 50 percent above China’s and double those in the United States, per IEA data. Reuters columnist Ron Bousso argues that the bloc’s clean energy buildout is a product of industrial and security policy rather than climate policy, with Brussels putting the cost above 660 billion euros a year through 2040 (Reuters). Set in Stone: A Swiss court has ruled that four residents of Indonesia’s Pari Island, which may be entirely underwater by 2060, can take cement giant Holcim to trial over climate damages, a recognition that individuals can sue a single corporate emitter regardless of geography. The plaintiffs want Holcim to cap absolute emissions and to decarbonize completely by 2050. Although Holcim cut its CO2 intensity per ton by 28 percent between 1990 and 2020, the sector’s total carbon footprint has reached record highs (Bloomberg).
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| 🧹 6.0 – Remove Carbon Procurement Policy: A bipartisan group of lawmakers, Senators Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) and Chris Coons (D-DE) and Reps. Paul Tonko (NY-20) and Scott Peters (CA-52), has reintroduced the Carbon Dioxide Leadership Act. If enacted, the legislation would require the Department of Energy to procure growing volumes of durable carbon dioxide removal over time as a guarantee to developers while the sector works to scale beyond early pilot projects (Carbon Herald). Bioenergy Breakthrough: In a move to expand carbon removal tied to biofuel production, Frontier Infrastructure Holdings and Carbonfuture announced the largest ethanol-based Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage agreement to date. The deal reflects growing interest in pairing existing industrial facilities with permanent carbon storage as buyers seek high-quality removal credits (Carbon Herald).
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| 🏛️ 7.0 – Win Politics And Policy Grid Guardrails: The Federal Communications Commission added foreign-produced networked solar inverters to its Covered List, barring new equipment authorizations on national security grounds. This move marks a big shift in U.S. oversight of solar equipment, even though domestic manufacturers supply just 7 percent of the U.S. inverter market (pv magazine USA). Unfrozen Assets: A federal appeals court upheld an injunction that bars the Environmental Protection Agency from terminating $20 billion in Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund grants. Eight nonprofit recipients can now access the money while litigation continues. The court found that EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin’s fraud claims weren’t substantiated by investigations by the agency’s inspector general, the Justice Department, or the FBI (New York Times).
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| 🏃 8.0 – Turn Movements Into Action Partial Credit: Although an $18 million EPA study on gas stoves and asthma in 1,200 Ohio homes was cancelled, researchers published results from the 85 households they reached first. When gas stoves were swapped out for electric induction models, kitchen nitrogen dioxide fell 70 percent. The data showed a statistically significant reduction in asthma attacks, emergency room visits, and missed workdays (Washington Post). Trust Deficit: Opposition to data centers is spreading beyond environmental groups to local communities worried about rising electricity bills, water use, noise, and land impacts. Even as AI drives a construction boom, developers are finding that securing local support can be as difficult as securing power (Jasmine Sun Substack).
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| ⚡ 9.0 – Innovate! Heat Check: Antora Energy raised $550 million to expand production of its thermal batteries, bringing total financing to roughly $1 billion. The existing 5 GWh thermal battery at biofuel leader POET’s ethanol plant in South Dakota turns cheap wind power into steam and displaces coal-fired boilers (Canary Media). Fuel Fast Track: As refineries in India build sustainable aviation fuel capacity, the binding constraint is increasingly cost rather than supply. India has committed to 1 percent SAF blending on international flights by 2027, rising to 5 percent by 2030 (CNBC TV18).
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| 💰 10.0 – Invest! Belt and Solar: China’s Belt and Road green energy financing hit a record $20 billion in the first half of 2026, surpassing the full-year total for 2025. The appeal of cheaper, more reliable energy amid the Iran conflict has helped accelerate investment, and private Chinese companies are playing an expanded role in overseas clean energy deployment (Financial Times). Own the Risk: According to MSCI CEO Henry Fernandez, most investors continue to ignore climate change’s long-term risk to asset values. In June, MSCI bought climate risk firm First Street for $120 million, adding physical risk data on 2.4 billion assets to the roughly 4 million it previously tracked (Bloomberg).
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