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U.S. climate policy just took a major hit—but markets, states, and the courts could still shape a path forward. |
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REGULATORY RESET WITH REAL-WORLD CONSEQUENCES: On February 12, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency overturned its own 16-year-old “endangerment finding,” which had served as the legal basis for federal regulation of greenhouse gas pollution. In so doing, they undermined years of scientific research to protect the public health and welfare. The EPA simultaneously repealed emissions standards for vehicles and all trucks, which originated from the same section of the Clean Air Act. Besides eroding the ability of U.S. automakers to compete in the global market, this action will have a cascading effect on existing regulations in other sectors, including power plants and other forms of transportation. So what are the paths forward? Make no mistake, this is a major setback. Nevertheless, we still have a range of pathways to advance the clean energy transition: Lawsuits. The Clean Air Council has joined a suit against the EPA on behalf of a “broad coalition of health and environmental groups.” While legal actions are important, they may take years to resolve and will likely be decided by the Supreme Court, which ruled that the EPA could indeed regulate greenhouse gases back in 2007. Since then, of course, the Court’s makeup has changed, and not in climate’s favor. Markets. Spurred by the plunging cost of clean energy, markets can overcome regulatory whiplash—but they‘ll need constant attention. As Josh Freed of Third Way noted, “We cannot build durable policy on the fragile foundation of court decisions that are so easily overturned in today’s unstable political era. The path forward is to double down on building clean by removing non-cost obstacles, shaping markets, and deploying capital as fast as possible.” Policy action. In the absence of federal leadership, states can show the way. California has sued the federal government to keep its own groundbreaking clean-car requirements; Colorado is moving to more than double its EV tax credit for consumers.
Bottom line: According to an analysis by Rhodium, the pre-Trump regulatory framework would have cut U.S. emissions by up to 44 percent from 2005 levels by 2035. Now the maximum projected cut stands at 35 percent. While that might sound like an incremental setback, the impact on people‘s health will be devastating. The loss of clean-vehicle standards alone will result in an additional 2,500 premature deaths per year. Speed & Scale‘s Objective 7.0, “Win Politics and Policy,” recognizes the core importance of the public sector in accelerating the drive to net zero. By keeping momentum alive until the next shift in the federal regulatory environment, state and local policymakers are playing an invaluable role in creating clean, affordable, and accessible energy. |
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| | | 🚗 1.0 – Electrify Transportation EV Cost Squeeze: Amid cooling domestic demand for EVs and surging raw material costs, China’s BYD has lost more than $60 billion in market value since May. Climbing prices for lithium, copper, aluminum, and memory chips are adding one thousand dollars or more per vehicle for some models (Bloomberg).
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| 💡 2.0 – Decarbonize the Grid Rate Shock: Since 2021, electricity prices have outpaced inflation and jumped nearly 40 percent. Last year alone, they rose 7 percent. State elections are being reshaped by voters’ frustration with repeated rate hikes and grid costs tied to storms, aging infrastructure, and surging data center demand (Power Lines). Battery Belt Shift: U.S. battery storage installations rose 29 percent last year, driven by strong utility-scale growth in Arizona and Texas, which is now poised to overtake California as the nation’s largest battery storage market. Anchored by standalone battery projects and the need for grid-scale reliability, Texas’s rapid expansion signals a geographic shift in storage dominance from the West Coast (Electrek and Axios).
🐄 3.0 – Fix Food Sleek and Seamless: New induction technology is reshaping high-end kitchen design, allowing for the sleeker layouts once dominated by gas. With larger induction ranges now available and restrictions on new gas hookups in New York, Washington, D.C., and parts of California, developers are adapting their designs for climate compliance in luxury condos and custom homes alike (New York Times). Food System Paradox: A Duke University symposium spotlighted the steep economic, environmental, and social toll of food waste in the U.S.—and policies that can turn waste reduction into climate and financial wins. Experts pointed to a structural mismatch between abundance and access in the country’s food system, with 31 percent of the U.S. food supply going unsold or uneaten even as 14 percent of households face food insecurity (Duke Today).
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| 🌳 4.0 – Protect Nature Games on Thin Ice: The Winter Olympics are increasingly vulnerable to global warming. Potential host cities have warmed by 2.7°C on average since 1950 and as of late are pouring millions of dollars into artificial snow. With nearly half of the world’s prospective venues unable to guarantee adequate snow by midcentury, the International Olympic Committee is weighing a move to a short rotation of climate-reliable countries to preserve the event’s future (Bloomberg).
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Trace to Trade: Vietnam is fast-tracking a national forest database this year to comply with the EU Deforestation Regulation, which bars imports of timber, coffee, rubber, and other commodities linked to forest loss. By digitizing forest boundaries and supply chain traceability, the country aims to protect its $17 billion wood export sector and strengthen sustainable forestry governance (Travel and Tour World).
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| 🧱 5.0 – Clean Up Industry Capacity Swap: China has relocated nearly a third of its aluminum capacity—roughly 13 million tons—from coal-heavy northern regions to renewables-rich provinces under a national production cap. The move aims to cut emissions from an industry that emits 5 percent of China’s carbon while positioning producers for EU carbon border tariffs and long-term green competitiveness (Financial Times). Electrification Pays: According to a new study of nine U.S. cities by RMI, all-electric single-family homes cost less to build and operate than mixed-fuel homes. With heat pumps up to four times more efficient than gas systems and gas rates up roughly 35 percent since 2020, electrification is cutting both emissions and household energy costs (Rocky Mountain Institute).
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| 🧹 6.0 – Remove Carbon Soil to Storage: To reach net zero by 2050, the EU is pairing rapid emissions cuts with efforts to remove unavoidable carbon from the atmosphere. Adopted in 2024, the Carbon Removals and Carbon Farming Regulation established the first EU-wide certification framework for permanent removals, farm-based sequestration, and carbon stored in products. The aim is to prevent greenwashing and unlock investment in durable climate solutions (European Commission).
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| 🏛️ 7.0 – Win Politics And Policy 90 by 2040: The European Parliament voted to amend the EU Climate Law, setting a new target to cut greenhouse gas emissions 90 percent by 2040 from 1990 levels. Starting in 2036, the law will allow up to five percentage points of the reduction to come from international carbon credits—which means at least 85 percent of the cuts must be made within the EU. The agreement also calls for biennial reviews that could adjust the pathway based on energy prices, technology, and competitiveness (ESG Today).
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STORAGE AT SCALE: To help power AI without driving up electricity bills, Google will deploy the largest-capacity battery in the world for a new data center in Pine Island, Minnesota. Startup Form Energy will provide an iron-air system that can store 30 gigawatt-hours of energy and discharge 300 MW of power—enough to power around 300,000 homes—for more than four days straight. To create a balanced grid solution, the long-duration system will be supplemented by 1,400 MW of wind power and 200 MW of solar. The energy will be supplied by Xcel Energy, the first major U.S. utility to pledge to deliver 100 percent clean electricity by 2050. Google will cover all costs, including added infrastructure, and will also give $50 million to an Xcel program to strengthen grid resilience with a distributed network of smaller batteries. The Minnesota innovation will help to advance Speed & Scale’s OKR 8.3, which calls upon Fortune Global 500 companies to eliminate Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions by 2050.
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| | 🏃 8.0 – Turn Movements Into Action Scaling Solutions: While AI’s expansion has brought job disruption and rising energy use, some organizations are using it to address the climate crisis. Aigen deploys solar-powered farm robots to reduce chemical inputs for weed control, while Smartex prevents fabric waste with real-time AI inspection in textile factories—just two illustrations, as Speed & Scale’s Ryan Panchadsaram notes, of how AI can be steered toward solving climate challenges (Stack Overflow). GOP Goes Solar: Most Republican-leaning voters support utility-scale solar, with 51 percent in favor and just 30 percent opposed, according to polling commissioned by First Solar. Support jumps to 70 percent if panels are made in the U.S. without Chinese materials. More than two thirds agree that the country needs “all forms of electricity generation, including utility solar” to lower power costs (Axios).
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| ⚡ 9.0 – Innovate! AI in Orbit: To power AI without straining grids on Earth, Elon Musk says he wants to launch up to one million solar-powered satellites to host data centers in orbit. While experts warn that heat management, debris risk, and short satellite lifespans pose major obstacles, Musk recently combined SpaceX with his AI business to finance the push (AP News). Rare Earths Reimagined: The world recycles less than one percent of rare earths, an opportunity for the U.S. to meet most of its needs by recovering minerals from mine waste, industrial scrap, and discarded electronics. While China mines the lion’s share of global supply, recycling and domestic processing may offer a more durable and immediate U.S. strategy than a costly rush to open new mines (New York Times).
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| 💰 10.0 – Invest! China Powers Up: Led by EVs, batteries, and solar, clean energy sectors drove more than one third of China’s GDP growth in 2025, generating more than $2 trillion, or 11 percent of the country’s GDP. But the boom could slow this year due to new pricing rules, overcapacity, and trade tensions (Carbon Brief).
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| Bills Before Build: A business-as-usual path to meet rising U.S. peak demand could raise electricity rates about 20 percent and require more than $500 billion in new capital, according to CREO. The global non-profit’s new report argues that affordability, measured by a new “marginal firm capacity cost” metric, will determine which grid investments scale (CREO).
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