| As oil supply shocks expose the fragility of dependence on fossil fuels, a new coalition is advancing a clean energy roadmap. |
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AMBITION RISING: A “coalition of the willing” from 57 countries—one third of the world’s economy—met in April in Colombia to address the challenge of global decarbonization. Dubbed “The Road to Santa Marta,” the convening was called to create a framework for the clean energy transition. It was noteworthy for excluding fossil fuel interests.
The first-of-its-kind “breakaway” event grew out of last November’s COP30 in Brazil, where the presidency promised an “informal” roadmap to phase out coal, oil, and gas after a formal one failed to materialize. The Colombia conference brought together national ministers, climate envoys, civil society leaders, Indigenous people, and a new science panel to weigh practical next steps for a fossil-free future, and to accelerate progress at future COPs. These conversations became even more timely with the outbreak of the Iran war. As UK Special Representative Rachel Kyte noted, it “would be irresponsible to ignore the second fossil-fuel crisis in five years.”
Seeking to avoid what organizers perceive to be dead-end consensus-building, the coalition chose not to invite the world’s four biggest emitters: China, India, Russia, and the U.S. The first three voted against a formal roadmap in Brazil, while the U.S. was a non-participant at COP30 after withdrawing from the Paris Agreement. “This first meeting,” said Panama’s Juan Carlos Monterrey Gomez, “had to be done with those that wanted something to be done.”
In its final session, the forum adopted three voluntary “workstreams”: Developing national and regional roadmaps to draw down fossil fuels, with support from the new science panel and the NDC Partnership. Revamping the global financial system, with a focus on fossil fuel subsidies and “debt traps.” Facilitating a fossil-fuel-free trade system, with backing from wealthy nations in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
Next year’s annual conference will be held in the Pacific island nation of Tuvalu, with Ireland co-hosting. If the “coalition of the willing” can sustain momentum and continue to explore the art of the possible, there could be significant benefits for future climate negotiations and the global drive to net zero. |
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| | | 🚗 1.0 – Electrify Transportation Turbulence Ahead: Delta quietly downgraded its 2050 net-zero target to an “aspiration” and removed its 10 percent sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) pledge from public materials. SAF now accounts for less than 1 percent of Delta’s use, a reflection of the widening gap between airline climate commitments and action (Bloomberg). Fueling EV Interest: As average U.S. gas prices climbed above $4 a gallon, used EV sales jumped 12 percent in the first quarter of 2026. Revived consumer interest, even after the end of federal tax credits, suggests a price-sensitive floor for EV adoption. New EVs are hovering at around 6 percent of the U.S. market, down sharply from their 11.5 percent share last September, just before the credits expired (Wall Street Journal).
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| KNOW WHICH WAY THE WIND BLOWS: In its latest salvo against wind power, President Trump’s administration has frozen more than 150 proposed onshore wind farms in place. If built, the blocked projects could generate enough electricity to power more than nine million homes. But with once-routine federal approvals now suspended indefinitely, developers could face a financial crunch as they await judicial relief. In at least 35 cases, their projects have cleared their Pentagon reviews but are languishing for lack of a signoff by an assistant secretary of defense. Meanwhile, after federal courts blocked President Trump’s executive orders to cancel or freeze several offshore wind farms, the administration is paying close to $2 billion to get energy companies to walk away from their leases in U.S. waters and invest in oil and gas projects instead.
As the climate for renewables turns chillier in the U.S., China is systematically extending its lead in global wind power. The world’s first electrostate “installed three times as much wind power capacity as the rest of the world combined” in 2025. The world’s six largest wind turbine manufacturers are now Chinese, with one-time U.S. and European export pacesetters–including General Electric–falling further behind by the year. With the Strait of Hormuz still mostly closed to transit of oil and gas, China’s massive investments in wind and solar look more and more like smart bets on the energy future. |
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| | 💡 2.0 – Decarbonize the Grid Gridlock at the Polls: A surge in AI-driven data center construction is triggering local backlash over energy use, water supply strain, and rising utility costs. With angry voters unseating elected officials and states weighing restrictions, the buildout is colliding with permitting, affordability, and electoral pressure even as demand and investment accelerate (NPR). Shock to System: Geopolitical shocks and disrupted oil flows are exposing the vulnerabilities of fossil fuels, prompting import-dependent economies to accelerate shifts in energy strategy. With clean alternatives now undercutting fossil imports on price in a number of regions, the crisis could mark an inflection point for the energy transition (Telegraph).
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🐄 3.0 – Fix Food Half a Harvest: Only about half of cropland calories were available for human consumption in 2020, nullifying much of a 24 percent rise in crop production over the previous decade. With more crops diverted into livestock feed and non-food uses, food security gains may depend less on increasing production and more on using what’s already grown more efficiently (Environmental Research Food Systems). Grounds for Mapping: Major coffee traders are building a shared global farm map to help millions of growers comply with the EU’s anti-deforestation rules. Signaling a move away from fragmented, company-by-company compliance, the public dataset could reduce the risk of misclassification and create a single reference point for coffee and forest boundaries (Bloomberg).
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🌳 4.0 – Protect Nature Trial by Fire: As wildfire risk intensifies, researchers are deliberately burning houses to test the impact of materials, design, and landscaping. Early findings show that relatively simple measures, from ember-proof vents to defensible space, can slow ignition and improve wildfire resilience (AP News). Strait Solution: A proposed 50-mile dam across the Bering Strait might help stabilize a network of ocean currents known as the AMOC by limiting freshwater flows into the Atlantic. While the idea remains speculative and politically fraught, it shows how concern over climate tipping points is surfacing in potential large-scale interventions (New York Times).
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Extra, Extra 📰 Heatmap’s Katie Brigham sat down with John Doerr and Speed & Scale lead Ryan Panchadsaram to unpack the launch of our revamped net zero plan and an open letter from John himself. The exclusive report spotlights where the world is making strong progress across our Objectives and Key Results—and where execution needs to accelerate. Catch up quickly here. |
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| 🧱 5.0 – Clean Up Industry Steel and Scale: India plans to cut steel emissions intensity by about 25 percent while expanding capacity to 400 million tons over the next ten years. The strategy leans on gas-based production (with less reliance on coal), scrap use, and incentives to pressure-test the challenge of decarbonizing a surging export category (Reuters).
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| 🧹 6.0 – Remove Carbon Removal, Removed: Microsoft, the dominant player in carbon removal with 80 percent of global demand, has paused new purchases and put a fragile early-stage market at risk. The company’s pullback points to the pressures facing the removal industry as buyers reassess costs and timelines (Heatmap News). Forests to Storage: JPMorgan will purchase 60,000 tons of carbon removal from Graphyte, with credits linked to forest-thinning projects that also reduce wildfire risk. The effort will finance a new facility in Arizona and signals a push to make land management a larger source of climate finance (Axios).
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| 🏛️ 7.0 – Win Politics And Policy Insurance Bill Blocked: A California bill to make oil and gas companies help cover climate-driven disaster costs advanced out of the state’s Senate Judiciary Committee but failed to pass the Senate Insurance Committee. The vote leaves households vulnerable and underscores the difficulty of holding fossil fuel producers financially liable (Extreme Weather Survivors). Crisis Mode, Again: After spending an extra $28 billion on imports because of the Iran war, Europe is rolling out emergency measures to cushion soaring energy costs. Airlines are cutting flights and chemical producers are raising prices. Other sectors are scaling back operations as higher fuel costs ripple through the economy (CNN).
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| 🏃 8.0 – Turn Movements Into Action Certified Clash: Citing feasibility concerns, major corporations are pushing to weaken proposed rules for Scope 2 emissions. The changes would make it harder for companies to claim 100 percent renewable power status and could reshape how they structure long-term clean energy contracts (Bloomberg). Dirty Air, Young Lungs: As smog and particulate matter reach their worst level in years, nearly half of U.S. children, more than 33 million in all, are exposed to unhealthy air pollution levels. Rising wildfire smoke and heat are worsening exposure even as regulatory rollbacks and growing power demand further erode air quality protections (The Guardian). Net Zero Rebranded: Despite political headwinds, most businesses in G7 countries say they are maintaining or increasing climate action, with 69 percent reporting more net zero activity in the past year. Many companies are tilting their messaging toward resilience and risk while delaying or revising their emissions targets–a sign of growing uncertainty around policy and investment (ESG Today).
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| ⚡ 9.0 – Innovate! Contrail Control: Google is using AI to help airlines avoid contrail formation, a significant but often overlooked source of warming. Early tests with American Airlines show that rerouting flights can reduce these heat-trapping clouds, a near-term lever to buy time for longer-term fuel usage changes (NBC). Power Play: British startup Oxford PV is being courted by both China and the U.S. for its perovskite-coated solar cells, which boost power output by roughly 20 percent. Competition over next-generation clean energy technologies is intensifying as governments race to anchor them inside their borders (Wall Street Journal).
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| 💰 10.0 – Invest! Capital in the Concrete: Climate investment is shifting away from venture-backed startups toward infrastructure and mature technologies, with 77 percent of new capital flowing into lower-risk projects. As deployment outpaces fundraising, investors are prioritizing projects that can be built and scaled immediately (Semafor).
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