This edition tracks the EV slowdown in the U.S., China’s EV surge abroad, and the innovations that will decide who wins the race to scale.

EV TIPPING POINT: At the recent Detroit Auto Show, the premier showcase for industry trends, the all-electric vehicles footprint visibly shrank–a metaphor for the U.S. retreat from EV growth. With new headwinds from the expiration of federal tax credits and the weakening of fuel economy standards, the country’s EV sales were basically flat in 2025 and are projected to slide 15 percent in 2026. Tesla, the category bellwether, had its second straight down year. In December, Ford cancelled production of its flagship F-150 Lightning pickup and took a $19.5 billion writedown on its EV operations, while GM wrote down another $7 billion. 

Yet despite what Bloomberg called an “EV winter,” we can see green shoots of spring. Better late than never, the big carmakers are adapting their EVs to U.S. mass market expectations of under $35,000. Last year, only three electrified models met that mark. But in 2026, as battery prices keep dropping, six new or revamped models will be rolled out under the $35,000 threshold. They include an upgraded Nissan Leaf SUV, a resurrected Chevrolet Bolt, and Toyota’s C-HR-BEV, a “coupe-like SUV.” In 2027, Ford plans to replace the F-150 Lightning with a new midsize electric pickup starting at $30,000.

Globally, sales of new passenger EVs, including plug-in hybrids, are projected to grow by just 12 percent in 2026, barely half of last year’s growth rate. Even so, the EV share of total global vehicle sales should rise to an all-time high of 28 percent—and to more than one third in Europe, where growth remains strong. Meanwhile, despite a softening domestic market, China’s BYD seized Tesla’s mantle as the world’s top EV maker. Chinese exports are making dramatic inroads in nearly every auto market outside the U.S., with overseas sales up by more than half through the first three quarters of 2025. 

In short, there’s no doubt that the EV transition is happening. The open questions are when it will pass the tipping point and who will lead. At present, Chinese companies are heading the charge to reach Speed & Scale’s global target for KR 1.1: to increase the EV market share to 50 percent of all new vehicles sold by 2030. What innovation imperatives can best help us meet this global challenge? As Climate Tech Map points out in just released deep dives, the top priorities are to speed adoption through improved battery performance and with faster, more flexible charging infrastructure.

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🚗 1.0 – Electrify Transportation

• Hybrid High Gear: Ford is in talks with BYD, China’s EV leader, to buy high-quality, cost-effective batteries for a growing hybrid lineup built outside the U.S. Coming on the heels of Ford’s pivot away from all-electric EVs, the potential deal would help the company scale hybrid models more quickly. Caveat: Trade tensions between the U.S. and China could complicate any agreement (The Wall Street Journal).

• From Subsidies to Scale: India’s electric two-wheeler sales hit a record 1.3 million units in 2025, an 11 percent increase year over year. Growing competition, expanding infrastructure, and evolving consumer demand are lifting consumer optimism in the sector (Micromobility).

• EU Powers Ahead: Battery-electric vehicle sales in the EU jumped 30 percent to a record high in 2025, overtaking petrol cars for the first time. The growth came despite a 38 percent drop in Tesla’s EU sales, as new models, strong subsidies, and surging competition from Chinese automakers like BYD powered the shift (Financial Times).

OKR Highlight

ALL👀S ON INDIA: India, the world’s fastest growing economy, is fast-tracking an electron-driven future. Ember highlights the factors driving the country’s trajectory toward net zero:

✅ The all-in cost of solar, with storage, is now about half that of a new coal plant.

✅ EVs in India are already undercutting combustion vehicles on price, and the country leads the world in sales of electric three-wheelers. 

✅ India’s economy is less energy-intensive and less skewed toward heavy industry than China’s, with less demand for high-emitting cement and steel.  

In sum, India is poised to transition to clean energy without a long and costly “fossil fuel detour.” And as geopolitical shifts have traditional trading allies looking for new partners and more secure supply chains, India could become a major player in exports of essential clean technologies.  

🐄 3.0 – Fix Food

• Microbial Makeover: As Pivot Bio and Nitricity scale next-gen fertilizers that cut up to 11 tons of CO₂e per ton of synthetic nitrogen, ag tech may be finally breaking through. These cheaper, cleaner fertilizer alternatives could upend a $100B market and shrink the climate footprint for agriculture, a sector that accounts for 5 percent of global emissions (Heatmap).

• Label Me Skeptical: While more brands now claim to sell “carbon neutral” beef, most can’t back it up. In an analysis of five “green beef” labels, World Resources Institute found a striking lack of publicly disclosed data. Despite methane-reducing feed additives and other emerging tools, beef continues to drive over 60 percent of livestock emissions. WRI notes that the lion’s share (83 percent) of beef-derived emissions stem from the carbon opportunity cost of land use to graze cattle or grow their feed. The best way to lower the climate impact of your beef? According to WRI, it’s simple: “Buy less of it.” (World Resources Institute).

🌳 4.0 – Protect Nature

• Boiling Point: The Earth’s oceans absorb over 90 percent of excess atmospheric heat. In 2025, they took in a record 23 zettajoules, enough to boil two billion Olympic swimming pools. This marked the eighth straight year of record-breaking ocean warming, locking in centuries of climate impacts as heat is carried from the surface into the deep ocean (Wired).

🧱 5.0 – Clean Up Industry

• Concrete Collapse: In a Bloomberg Opinion piece, David Fickling argues that global cement use has likely peaked, a good thing for the climate. Cement accounts for 8 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. With China’s building slump, global output is down 30 percent since 2020. Given the limited technology for decarbonization in this sector, a long-term decline may be our best path for cutting those emissions (Bloomberg).

• China Builds Green:  Signaling a sharp Chinese pivot from building cities to building a clean energy economy, the country’s firms have pumped more than $200 billion into overseas green manufacturing since 2022 (Nat Bullard).

🧹 6.0 – Remove Carbon

• Microsoft Scales Carbon Cuts: In FY2025, Microsoft signed deals to remove over 45 million metric tons of CO₂ across soil, ocean, forest, and engineered pathways. Leading the pack is a record-breaking 2.9 million-ton soil carbon deal with Indigo Ag. Microsoft also inked long-term commitments to bioenergy projects with carbon capture and storage in Sweden, enhanced rock weathering on U.S. farmland, and tropical reforestation in Brazil. These efforts mark a move from pilot to industrial scale, as Microsoft builds early demand to unlock financing, science, and credibility for the still embryonic carbon removal market (Microsoft and ESG Dive).

🏛️ 7.0 – Win Politics And Policy

• Bytes vs. Bills: As AI supercharges electricity demand, both the State of New York and the Trump administration are taking aim at data centers’ growing impact on the grid. New York’s plan would require energy-hungry tech hubs to generate their own power or pay more for grid access as the state looks to expand its nuclear capacity. Meanwhile, Trump is pushing a $15 billion federal auction that would lock tech giants into 15-year power contracts to fund new electricity generation capacity and shield ratepayers from rising bills (Bloomberg and Bloomberg).

• Batteries vs. Barrels: As Trump doubles down on fossil fuels, China is racing ahead to produce 2.5x more electricity than the United States and to dominate EVs, batteries, and key tech supply chains. While the U.S. clings to oil, Chinese companies are reshaping global markets by electrifying everything faster—and selling it to the world (New York Times).

• All Talk, No Transition: A new Global Energy Innovation Index reveals a yawning gap between global ambitions and national actions, especially on fossil fuel subsidy phaseouts and clean tech deployment. Absent stronger policies on renewables, efficiency, and fossil fuel phaseouts, the stretch goal to limit global warming to 1.5°C will be a long shot, at best (Council on Foreign Relations).

🏃 8.0 – Turn Movements Into Action

• Small But Nuclear: Kairos Power is building one of the first small modular nuclear reactors in the U.S., aiming to deliver 500 megawatts to Google by 2035. As nuclear momentum grows, the project will test whether next-generation reactors can scale quickly enough to meet climate goals amid AI-driven energy demands (New York Times).

• Sun Blocked: Two Wyoming ranchers hoped to cut six-figure electricity bills with solar, but restrictive net-metering laws and rising utility rates have made their systems impractical. The state’s 25-kilowatt cap has stalled rural clean energy adoption, threatening both climate progress and the future of family-owned ranches (Inside Climate News).

• Dollar Signs, Endangered Lives: Ending a thirty-year practice, the Environmental Protection Agency has stopped assigning a dollar value to lives saved by limits on deadly air pollutants. Economists and health experts warn the move could weaken clean air rules nationwide, undermining decades of public health progress (New York Times).

⚡ 9.0 – Innovate!

• Winds Above, Power Below: China completed the first test flight of a megawatt-class high-altitude wind turbine for urban use, generating enough power in one hour to fully charge 30 electric vehicles. The S2000 SAWES system offers a compact, flexible alternative to ground-based wind farms and marks a major step toward airborne wind commercialization (Global Times China).

• Power to the People: In South Africa’s power-strapped towns, pay-as-you-go, solar-charged rental batteries are keeping businesses running, generating income, and powering medical devices. As the appetite for electricity surges across the continent, low-cost battery programs could be scaled to meet demand (New York Times).

💰 10.0 – Invest!

• Wall Street Retreat: Six years after pledging $130 trillion to fight climate change, with political backlash and legal pressure mounting, leading financial institutions have largely abandoned their net-zero commitments. Wall Street’s ESG pullback has left climate finance ambitions stalled even as fossil fuel funding rebounds (New York Times).

• Back to Its Oily Roots: Abandoning promises to scale renewables, BP will write down up to $5 billion from jettisoned low-carbon projects and shift investment back toward oil and gas. With new leadership and asset sales underway, the company is signaling a shift away from energy transition strategies and toward traditional fossil fuel operations (The Wall Street Journal).

• Gridlocked Growth: A new BloombergNEF report found that global renewable energy investment dropped 9.5 percent to $690 billion in 2025, marking the first annual drop since 2013. The decline was largely driven by power market reforms in China, which made renewable projects less financially viable for developers (BNEF).

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