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 | Welcome to Zeroing In by Speed & Scale, where we cut through the noise to deliver a data-driven update on progress toward net zero. |
| | *** Editor’s Note *** As of Thursday, January 16, 2025, more than 100,000 Angelinos have been displaced from their homes, at least 24 people have died, over 12,000 structures (schools, homes, businesses) are gone, and more than 40,000 acres have burned across Los Angeles County. We are heartbroken for the families, communities, organizations, and business owners who’ve been struck by this tragedy, and join the outpouring of gratitude to the firefighters and first responders. We “zero in” further with a special section below on the wildfires.
If you are looking for ways to donate or support these communities: LA Times: How to help those affected by fires raging across Los Angeles County |
| | UNDERSTANDING THE U.S. BANK DEPARTURES FROM NZBA: Both industry and financial institutions (lenders) play critical roles in helping countries to scale clean energy investments and meet their net zero emissions goals. In 2021, the Net-Zero Banking Alliance (NZBA), a U.N.-sponsored coalition, set out to do just that, working with some of the world’s biggest banks to commit to shifting their lending and investment portfolios to align with pathways to reach net zero by 2050 or sooner. In recent weeks, however, the six largest U.S. banks—Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, Citi, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan—have withdrawn from NZBA. BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, is leaving the Net Zero Asset Managers Initiative (NZAM).
Why now? In the U.S., these net zero groups have been dogged by political inquiries and concerns over potential antitrust implications. At issue are collective commitments to significantly reduce lending to fossil fuel enterprises, which could be considered anti-competitive.
What does this mean? While these departures aren’t great news, we need to place them in perspective. Big swings of the political pendulum, in the U.S. and elsewhere, are not uncommon. Policy frameworks must adapt to changing conditions on the ground while holding fast to net-zero 2050 goals. As of now, even as these leading financial institutions exit NZBA, they remain in the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ), an umbrella organization. Additionally, no U.S. banks have signaled a departure from their own net zero goals.
Given the stated goals of the incoming administration and the Republican Congressional leadership, the U.S. will most definitely be pursuing an all-of-the-above strategy for energy production and deployment: fossil fuels, renewables, and nuclear. As demands on our nation’s grids keep rising, clean energy technologies must continue to be in the mix at scale. Lenders, investors, and asset managers will be essential to these efforts–and to preserve their commitments to decarbonize. |
| | | 🚗 1.0 – Electrify Transportation Mapping the Gap: Wroclaw, Poland, ranks second globally in residents’ proximity to frequent transit, surpassing cities like New York and Paris, according to the Institute for Transportation and Development Policy’s new Atlas of Sustainable City Transport. This interactive mapping tool enables policymakers to compare regions, set goals for accessibility improvements, and identify disparities. For example: Despite having similar-sized transit systems, Boston has significantly higher transit usage when compared to Dallas (Bloomberg). China Charges Ahead: For the first time, electric vehicles are projected to have outsold internal combustion engine cars in China in 2024, a historic milestone in the world’s largest car market. In 2025, EV sales are projected to grow 20 percent year-over-year, to more than 12 million– doubling sales in 2022. This sharp upward trajectory, fueled by domestic innovation, subsidies, and cost reductions, underscores China’s dominance in EV manufacturing. As China accelerates to its goal of 50 percent EV sales a decade ahead of schedule, it’s a clear threat to traditional carmakers globally (Financial Times).
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| 💡 2.0 – Decarbonize the Grid Relying on Renewables: The surging energy needs for AI data centers and crypto farms, a big part of a projected 16 percent increase in total U.S. electricity demand by 2029, is driving investment in all energy sources, from renewables to natural gas. Despite President-elect Trump’s criticisms of clean energy, the sector could see explosive growth as tech giants invest billions in renewable projects to meet near-term power demands (Wall Street Journal & Wall Street Journal). Burning Through Records: Due to a soaring need for electricity, global coal demand surged to a record 8.8 billion metric tons in 2024 according to the International Energy Agency. While renewables are expanding, coal remains the dominant energy source and the largest contributor to global warming. Consumption is expected to set new records each year through at least 2027, driven substantially by China, which consumes nearly 30 percent more coal than the rest of the world combined. China continues to defy the IEA’s projections that its use of coal should be tapering off (IEA).
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|  | 🐄 3.0 – Fix Food Food Waste Unwrapped: Food waste reduction efforts have gained momentum, with grocery retailers reducing unsold food by 24 percent between 2019 to 2022 (the latest data available). Even so, the average U.S. family still wastes $3,000 worth of food annually. In 2025, improved data on waste hotspots, and pivotal policy developments, including food date label laws and the Farm Bill, are expected to shape a critical year for tackling food waste (ReFed). Grounds for Worry: Fueled by climate change-driven droughts and floods in such key producers as Brazil and Vietnam, along with rising global demand (including a 60 percent increase in China over five years), global coffee prices hit a 47-year high in December. Experts warn that extreme weather and deforestation will continue to shrink coffee-growing regions, threatening industry sustainability and pushing prices higher long term (New York Times).
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| 🌳 4.0 – Protect Nature Powering Through Drought: Ecuador’s reliance on hydroelectric power, which supplies 70 percent of its energy, has been strained by an unprecedented drought linked to climate change. The country is suffering from daily power cuts that last up to 14 hours and cost the nation $12 million per hour in lost productivity. Unless Ecuador diversifies its energy sources, experts warn that the country’s crisis, a bellwether for other nations dependent on hydropower, could persist at least until 2026 (New York Times). Cost of Coverage: As climate-linked wildfires and hurricanes intensify and become more frequent, home insurance nonrenewals have surged across the U.S., with over 1.9 million policies dropped since 2018, according to a Senate investigation. Growing numbers of homeowners are facing the challenges of maintaining coverage amid rising premiums, property value concerns, and limited insurer options (New York Times).
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| | | The devastating wildfires sweeping Los Angeles are a stark reminder of how extreme weather patterns can create perilous conditions and lead to natural disasters. As the destruction from the fires displaces thousands and causes heartbreaking, irreplaceable losses, these fires prompt us to examine the underlying conditions that triggered them. Last winter, a torrent of torrential and deadly rainstorms in Southern California resulted in dense vegetation growth. Then came nearly a year of exceptional drought, in which Los Angeles received just two percent of its normal rainfall. With the vegetation dangerously dry, and powerful Santa Ana winds gusting over 100 miles per hour, this “weather whiplash” contributed to one of the most destructive and costliest wildfire events in U.S. history. Across LA County, over 12,000 structures (schools, homes, businesses) are gone and over 40,300 acres have burned. With at least 24 fatalities and damages estimated to climb to over $50 billion, this tragedy highlights the need to address the compounding impacts of a warming planet and volatile weather on urban and natural ecosystems alike. |
| | 🧱 5.0 – Clean Up Industry Push for Plastic: Global plastic use has risen twentyfold since 1967, with petrochemicals now accounting for 15 percent of global oil demand and projected to reach 19 percent by 2035 as emerging markets grow wealthier. With electric vehicles and fuel-efficient cars reducing oil demand for transport, Big Oil is pivoting to plastic production. The headwinds: oversupply, weak profit margins, and growing regulations on plastic waste and single-use items (Wall Street Journal). Fueling the Hydrogen Future: The Biden administration finalized rules for hydrogen production tax credits worth up to $3 per kilogram, expanding eligibility to include nuclear power plants, natural gas with carbon capture, and methane from renewable sources. While the changes aim to spur a domestic clean hydrogen industry that’s critical for reducing emissions in steel and transportation, environmental groups remain divided. Some praise the rules as progress, while others criticize loopholes for “dirty hydrogen” (Bloomberg).
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| 🧹 6.0 – Remove Carbon Carbon Gold Rush: Investors are betting heavily on the nascent carbon dioxide removal industry, which has raised over $5 billion since 2018. While the technology remains expensive, Microsoft and Google were among the companies that committed a total of $1.6 billion in 2024 alone to purchase removal credits. The market is projected to reach $1.2 trillion by 2050, signaling a “gold rush” for climate solutions (New York Times). Race to Remove: The Bezos Earth Fund, in collaboration with RMI (formerly the Rocky Mountain Institute), has published a global roadmap that outlines 83 initiatives to scale greenhouse gas removal technologies to 10 gigatons annually by 2050. With past emissions already bringing the world close to climatic tipping points, the report emphasizes the urgency of near-term interim targets, setting goals of 285 megatons annually by 2030 and 4.5 gigatons by 2040 (Bezos Earth Fund).
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| 🏛️ 7.0 – Win Politics And Policy Melting Priorities: While President-elect Donald Trump has declared Greenland and the Panama Canal critical to U.S. national security, and has voiced aspirations to control them, climate change is increasing the strategic importance of both regions. Melting Arctic ice is opening new global trade routes and resource opportunities for Greenland, while climate-induced droughts and rising sea levels are threatening the Panama Canal’s functionality (New York Times). Trump’s Second Act: In an episode of the Odd Lots podcast, U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm discussed the potential impacts of the incoming Trump administration on energy policy. She highlighted the challenges of sustaining clean energy progress under new leadership while noting bipartisan opportunities in such areas as nuclear and geothermal energy (Bloomberg). The Inevitable Shift: Donald Trump’s return to power, along with victories by climate-skeptical candidates in Germany, Canada, and Australia, raises challenges for the global energy transition–but it won’t stop the inevitable shift to clean energy. As Eurasia Group notes, the transition is now “driven by economic self-interest…though it will be slowed by the occasional bump along the way, the global energy transition will power forward” (Eurasia Group).
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| 🏃 8.0 – Turn Movements Into Action Biden’s Climate Gamble: President Biden has set a new U.S. climate target to cut greenhouse gas emissions by at least 61 percent below 2005 levels by 2035. While the target is not binding and is likely to be revoked by the incoming Trump administration, it aims to encourage state, local, and international climate action amid concerns over U.S. reliability in global climate efforts (New York Times).
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| ⚡ 9.0 – Innovate! AI’s Sunny Solution: Off-grid solar microgrids could be a scalable and cost-effective solution to meet the rapidly growing energy demands of AI data centers, particularly given the length of time it takes to connect new renewables to the grid. These microgrids can be deployed in as little as two years, as compared to typical multi-year delays for grid expansion. According to one recent report, systems that supply 90 percent of lifetime demand from solar could avoid more than 4 billion tons of CO2 emissions by 2030 while supplying clean energy at near-cost parity with natural gas (Off Grid AI). Farm Fresh Innovation: Researchers have developed a prototype device that produces ammonia—an essential fertilizer ingredient—with wind energy and air, drastically cutting energy use and emissions versus the traditional method, which accounts for 1 percent of global CO2 emissions. The new technology, which operates at room temperature and standard pressure, has potential applications in decentralized farming and clean energy storage, with market readiness expected in two to three years (Stanford Report).
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| 💰 10.0 – Invest! Grid Locked: Driven by decarbonization, rising electricity demand, and grid fortification, a global surge in electricity infrastructure investment, reached nearly $400 billion in 2024 and is projected to hit $600 billion annually by 2030. While companies like Schneider Electric, Siemens Energy, and GE Vernova are boosting production to meet demand, supply chain bottlenecks, including a shortage of transformers, have driven up costs and significantly extended wait times (The Economist). Clean Energy Cliffhanger: After investment boomed to a record $71 billion in Q3 2024, thanks in large part to the Inflation Reduction Act, the clean energy sector faces uncertainty under President-elect Donald Trump, who may cut renewable energy subsidies and revoke climate-friendly regulations. While investors are growing nervous about potential policy shifts, global energy demand growth, bipartisan support, and the plummeting cost of solar and wind power could sustain investment momentum in clean technologies. A total of $435 billion for clean energy projects has already been announced (New York Times).
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