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| COP30 in Belem, Brazil, is officially underway. You can track the proceedings and talks here. |
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| | ACCELERATION NEEDED: Ten years after the Paris Agreement, and five years after Speed & Scale first used the United Nations’ gold-standard data to craft our plan for net zero, the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) has released its annual Emissions Gap Report.
What’s the latest? The report showed that we’ve made substantial headway on decarbonization. For one thing, more than two-thirds of the world’s emissions are now covered by countries’ net zero pledges, versus none at all in 2015. When the Paris Agreement was adopted, the world was on track for 4°C. of warming. Ten years later, it’s been trimmed to around 3°.
Less happily, UNEP found that greenhouse gas emissions jumped more than 2 percent in 2024, to another record high. Based on current national policies, the world’s emissions gap for 2030—the difference between “where we are likely to be and where we need to be“—remains far too large. The UN now projects 2.8° Celsius of global warming by the year 2100. That’s substantially above the Paris target of “well below 2° C. over pre-industrial levels,” a level that would “significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change.” The title of this year’s UNEP report, “Off Target,” says it all.
As UNEP reminds us, “Every fraction of a degree matters.” Faster climate action at scale will lessen the warming’s horrific impact on the “poorest and most vulnerable” places and people. It will reduce the risk of triggering no-return climate tipping points. The way is clear. Now the world needs the will. |
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| | | 🚗 1.0 – Electrify Transportation Shipping Tax Capsized: Wielding threats on trade and visa restrictions, the U.S. derailed the adoption of the first global pollution tax on shipping by the International Maritime Organization. Backed by Russia and Saudi Arabia, the U.S. pressure tactics stalled a move to fund a transition to cleaner fuels, despite support from the shipping industry, U.S. allies, and even China (New York Times). Clearing the Air, in Circles: Air pollution in Keene, New Hampshire, dropped as much as 40 percent after traditional intersections were replaced by modern roundabouts. Pitched as a climate-friendly alternative to a proposed high-speed highway, the city’s redesign is projected to cut gasoline use, improve pedestrian safety, and save public money on traffic infrastructure (New York Times).
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China’s carbon emissions stayed flat in the third quarter of 2025, extending a trend that began in March 2024. While electricity demand jumped 6 percent, solar generation grew by 46 percent and electricity from wind rose 11 percent, year over year. Along with smaller increases from nuclear and hydro, these gains enabled China to meet rising energy needs without an increase in CO2 emissions. Meanwhile, record EV adoption led to year-over-year transport emissions dropping by 5 percent.
This development advances Speed & Scale’s KR 2.1, which calls for emissions-free sources to generate 50 percent of electricity by 2026 and 90 percent by 2035 in advanced economies, with the timeline extended five to ten years for emerging economies. China’s deployment and export of low-cost renewables also bolster KR 2.2, which calls for solar and wind to be cheaper than fossil fuels by 2025. |
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| | 💡 2.0 – Decarbonize the Grid Watt’s Behind Your Bill?: Between 2019 and 2024, driven by wildfire recovery costs, grid infrastructure upgrades, and natural gas price volatility, electricity prices rose faster than inflation in 17 U.S. states. Leading factors include investor-owned utility profits, data center demand, and declining grid sales from rooftop solar (ScienceDirect). $615K a Day to Delay: It costs $615,000 a day to keep Michigan’s J.H. Campbell coal plant open, as ordered by the Trump administration. If this model were to be replicated nationwide, critics warn that prolonging coal’s lifespan could saddle U.S. consumers with billions in added costs (The Wall Street Journal).
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| | Social media spotlight 📲 Social media influencer Nara Smith, known for her high-fashion cooking videos, has teamed up with Algae Cooking Club to showcase a lower-carbon kitchen swap.
Produced through fermentation, algae-based oil generates about half the emissions of canola, avocado, or olive oil, while also using far less water. 💦 |
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| 🐄 3.0 – Fix Food You Are Where You Eat: A new study finds that the greenhouse gas footprint of beef varies dramatically by U.S. city—so much so that eating a single burger in Higginsville, Missouri, generates as many emissions as five in Auburn, Indiana. These carbon “hoofprints” are shaped by a location’s livestock supply chain. Culled beef or dairy cattle, for example, have lower GHG intensity than animals from feedlots, especially those with open manure lagoons (Nature). Cocoa’s Lab Experiment: With global chocolate consumption exceeding 7 million metric tons per year and cacao prices hitting a record $12,000 per ton, uneven harvests and climate-related crop failures are driving interest in lab-grown alternatives. California Cultured is developing cocoa from cultivated plant cells, a method that could reduce reliance on deforested land and pesticides (The Guardian).
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| | Holiday Highlight 🦃
SPOILER ALERT: More than 300 million pounds of food will be thrown out this Thanksgiving, including a record 40 percent of turkeys. This is the equivalent of 267 million meals and $550 million in tossed leftovers. This holiday season, let’s savor the feast without feeding the landfill. Here are some tips on how you can help cut climate pollution and pare the 800,000-plus tons of CO₂ linked to Thanksgiving waste: Plan your portions: Stick to one pound of turkey per guest and scale recipes for smaller gatherings. Send guests home happy: Share leftovers in clear, labeled containers to avoid waste. Get creative: Turn mashed potatoes into fritters, bread into pudding, or turkey into chili. Donate extras: Unused canned goods? Drop them at your local food bank. Compost what’s left: Check if your city offers compost pickup or drop-off.
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| | 🌳 4.0 – Protect Nature Iceland Gets Bitten: As climate change warms Iceland four times faster than the global average, mosquitoes are plaguing the island for the first time. The invasion of Culiseta annulata is raising alarm over the spread of mosquito-borne diseases in regions once too cold to host them (ABC News). Tree Tally: Global net forest loss—the amount that deforestation exceeds forest expansion—was cut by more than half between the 1990s and the last ten years, from 26 million acres per year to 10 million acres. The biggest forest net gainers were China and Russia; the biggest net loser (by far) was Brazil, a trend that has somewhat abated since Lula da Silva returned to office in 2023 (Carbon Brief).
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| 🧱 5.0 – Clean Up Industry No Data, No Credit: In 2023, U.S. oil and gas operators disclosed 322 million metric tons of CO₂ emissions under a federal reporting program the EPA now proposes to roll back. While the agency claims the move could save companies $256 million annually, industry groups warn that a data deficit would undercut tax credits, LNG exports, and corporate climate accountability (Bloomberg). Creaky Climate Outlook: According to the latest Rhodium Climate Outlook, progress in power and transport is bending the emissions curve, but stubborn industrial pollution and surging activity in emerging economies threaten to lock in higher temperatures unless policy and innovation accelerate (Rhodium Group).
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| Podcast Highlight🎙️
Even if we do everything we need to limit carbon emissions—curb deforestation, switch to EVs, clean up our power grids—we’ll still need to remove billions of tons of carbon from our atmosphere to meet global climate goals🌎
Carbon removal companies removed roughly 35,000 tons of carbon last year, a tiny fraction of what’s needed.
In this week’s episode, hosts Ryan Panchadsaram and Anjali Grover talk with Nan Ransohoff, Head of Climate at Stripe. They dig into her groundbreaking work to have companies pay for removal and explore what it will take to get rid of carbon at the gigaton scale. |
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| | | | 🏛️ 7.0 – Win Politics And Policy Short on Solar, Long on Atom: Projected to fall 33 gigawatts short of its 2030 solar and wind capacity target, Japan is expected to restart three additional nuclear reactors over the next five years—far less than what’s needed to meet its energy goals. New Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is backing nuclear and domestically developed technologies while casting doubt on Chinese solar imports (Bloomberg). Grid Flex: The U.S. could unlock over 100 gigawatts of extra grid capacity if large-scale electricity users adopt load flexibility, according to a recent analysis. In a bid to power AI growth without waiting on trillion-dollar grid expansions, Energy Secretary Chris Wright is pushing the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to expedite approval for large-load interconnections (Latitude Media). Atomic Advantage: With China building nuclear reactors twice as fast and at a fraction of the cost of those in the U.S., their plan is to surpass U.S. nuclear capacity by 2030 and export their next-gen technology worldwide (New York Times). Golden State Diplomacy: California Governor Gavin Newsom took center stage at COP30, stepping in as the highest-ranking American official to sign global climate agreements and spotlight state-led action, while also criticizing the federal climate leadership void. As the Trump administration sat the conference out, Newsom led a 100-person subnational delegation, signaling that U.S. climate action won’t wait on Washington (Newsweek).
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| 🏃 8.0 – Turn Movements Into Action Failing the 1.5°C Test: Despite growing climate awareness and isolated progress, none of the 45 indicators assessed in the World Resources Institute’s State of Climate Action 2025 are on track to reach their 1.5°C-aligned targets by the end of this decade. To avoid locking in potentially catastrophic outcomes, exponential acceleration is needed across every sector, from a coat phase-out to reducing deforestation to closing a $1 trillion annual climate finance gap (WRI). Memo Maelstrom: On October 28, Bill Gates released a provocative memo titled, “3 tough truths about climate: What I want everyone at COP30 to know.” The content set off a flurry of reactions: some critical, some supportive, and many a bit of both. Gates contends that the climate community is too focused on near-term emissions goals and that government leaders should channel their climate efforts into adaptation. He urges leaders to reduce the green premium and to be scrupulous in measuring impact. Gates argues that the metric that matters most is the number of lives saved. Critics respond that climate efforts are precisely focused on just that: saving lives and promoting human welfare.
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| ⚡ 9.0 – Innovate! The Battery Boom: Battery storage is surging worldwide, with global capacity expected to grow by 67 percent this year and tenfold by 2035. The growth will be driven by cheap solar, rising demand from AI data centers, and plummeting lithium-ion prices. California’s 2020 blackout helped spark the revolution, though regulatory hurdles and investor uncertainty still threaten to slow the charge (Financial Times). AI Meets 100M°: Google DeepMind is partnering with nuclear fusion startup Commonwealth Fusion Systems to apply AI to the complex physics of 100 million-degree plasma, an essential ingredient for unlocking commercial fusion energy. Their collaboration aims to accelerate the development of the SPARC reactor and marks a broader shift in how AI is being used to build its carbon-free future (Axios).
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| 💰 10.0 – Invest! A+ Adaptation: Ten major development banks pledged to deliver $185 billion in climate finance by 2030 for low- and middle-income countries, with $120 billion from their own accounts and the rest mobilized from the private sector. Unveiled at COP30, the commitment aims to elevate climate adaptation on the global agenda and marks a coordinated push to channel more capital to vulnerable nations facing escalating climate disasters (Bloomberg). Boom, Then Backtrack: Due to rollbacks under the Trump administration, clean energy companies have canceled or scaled back more than $24 billion in projects so far this year—nearly double the amount of new investment announced to date. The rollbacks mainly hurt battery and EV manufacturing, including cuts to federal tax credits that once underpinned the sector’s rapid expansion (E2).
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