An Action Plan for Solving Our Climate Crisis Now

1.0
Electrify Transportation
Reduce 8 gigatons of transportation emissions to 2 gigatons by 2050.
1.1
Price

Achieve price parity between EVs and gas-powered vehicles in the U.S. by 2024, in India and China by 2030.

Updated April 2024
Insufficient Progress

$54,288 (average EV) vs. $47,209 (average full-size car) in the U.S.

Source: Kelley Blue Book, 2023

1.2
Cars

Increase EV sales to 50% of all new car sales by 2030, 95% by 2040.

Updated April 2024
On Track

EV share of car sales was 17.7% in 2023

(BEVs and PHEVs)

Source: BloombergNEF, 2024

1.3
Buses

Electrify all new buses by 2025.

Updated April 2024
Insufficient Progress

43% of new bus purchases were electric in 2023

Source: BloombergNEF, 2023

1.4
Trucks

Increase sales of zero-emissions medium and heavy trucks to 30% of all new truck sales by 2030; 95% by 2045.

Updated April 2024
Failing

Electric share of global truck sales was 2% in 2023

(BEVs, FCVs, and PHEVs)

Source: BloombergNEF, 2023

1.5
Miles ↓ 5 Gt

Increase miles driven by electric vehicles (two- and three-wheelers, cars, buses, and trucks) to 50% of the global total by 2040, 95% by 2050.

Updated April 2024
Insufficient Progress

EV global share of miles driven across road vehicles in 2022: 10.4%

(BEVs, FCVs, and PHEVs)

Source: BloombergNEF, 2023

1.6
Planes ↓ 0.3 Gt

Increase low-carbon fuel (SAF) to 20% of all aviation fuel by 2025; zero-emissions fuel to 40% by 2040.

Updated April 2024
Failing

0.4% of fuel use is low carbon (SAF)

Source: BloombergNEF, 2024

1.7
Maritime ↓ 0.6 Gt

Shift all new construction to “zero-ready” ships by 2030; zero out emissions for the shipping industry by 2050.

Updated April 2024
Failing

Zero percent of new ships are carbon-neutral

Source: Global Martime Forum, 2023

2.0
Decarbonize the Grid
Reduce 24 gigatons of global electricity and heating emissions to 3 gigatons by 2050.
2.1
Zero Emissions ↓ 16.5 Gt

Tap emissions-free sources to generate 50% of electricity worldwide by 2025, 90% by 2035.

Updated April 2024
Insufficient Progress

39% of electricity came from emissions free sources in 2022

Source: Energy Institute, 2023

2.2
Solar & Wind

Make solar and wind cheaper than fossil fuels in all countries by 2025.

Updated June 2024
On Track

59% of the world’s population lives in nations where renewable sources are cheaper than fossil fuels

Source: BloombergNEF, 2024

2.3
Storage

Electricity storage drops below $50 per kWh for short duration (4–24 hours) by 2025, $10 per kWh for long duration (14–30 days) by 2030.

Updated April 2024
Failing

Short-term storage: $263/kWh

Long-term storage: New technologies needed

Source: BloombergNEF, 2023

2.4
Coal & Gas

Eliminate new coal and gas plants from 2024 on; retire or zero out emissions in existing plants by 2025 for coal and by 2035 for gas.*

Updated April 2024
Code Red

Now in operation globally: 6,580 coal-fired plants and 9,278 gas and oil plants

Source: Global Energy Monitor, 2024

As of 2023, separate figures for oil and gas plants are not available.

 

2.5
Methane Emissions ↓ 3 Gt

Reduce flaring and eliminate leaks and venting from coal, oil, and gas sites by 2025.

Updated April 2024
Code Red

Methane emissions from the energy sector were 3 gigatons in 2023

2.6
Heating & Cooking ↓ 1.5 Gt

Cut fossil fuels for heating and cooking in half by 2040.*

Updated April 2024
Failing

In 2021, building heating generated 2.5 Gt of emissions and over 7 billion people used fossil fuels for cooking

2.7
Cleaner Economy

Triple the ratio of GDP to fossil fuel consumption.

Updated April 2024
Failing

Global average: $241 of GDP per Exajoule of Fossil Fuel Consumption

3.0
Fix Food
Reduce 9 gigatons of agricultural emissions to 2 gigatons by 2050.
3.1
Farm Soils ↓ 2 Gt

Improve soil health by increasing carbon content in topsoils to a minimum of 3% by 2035.

Updated May 2024
Limited Data

Limited Data

3.2
Fertilizers ↓ 0.5 Gt

Stop overuse of nitrogen-based fertilizers and develop cleaner alternatives to cut emissions in half by 2050.

Updated April 2024
Failing

The world uses 65.5 kilograms per hectare of nitrogen-based fertilizers

Source: Food and Agriculture Organization and Our World in Data, 2023

3.3
Cows ↓ 3 Gt

Cut emissions from beef and dairy consumption by 25% by 2030, 50% by 2050.

Updated April 2024
Code Red

3.3 gigatons of emissions from beef and dairy in 2021

3.4
Rice ↓ 0.5 Gt

Reduce methane and nitrous oxide from rice farming by 50% by 2050.

Updated April 2024
Failing

1.1 gigaton of CO2e resulting from rice production

Source: Our World in Data, 2024

3.5
Food Waste ↓ 1 Gt

Cut food waste to 10% by 2050.

Updated April 2024
Failing

38% of food in the US is wasted

Source: ReFed, 2022

4.0
Protect Nature
Go from 6 gigatons of emissions to -1 gigatons by 2050.
4.1
Forests ↓ 6 Gt

Achieve net zero deforestation by 2030; end logging and other destructive practices in primary forests.

Updated April 2024
Code Red

17.6 million hectares of permanent tree cover loss

Source: Global Forest Watch, 2022

4.2
Oceans ↓ 1 Gt

Protect 30% of oceans by 2030, 50% by 2050.

Updated April 2024
Failing

8.2% of coastal oceans are protected

Source: Protected Planet, 2024

4.3
Lands

Expand protected lands to 30% by 2030, 50% by 2050.

Updated April 2024
Failing

16% of global lands are protected

Source: Protected Planet, 2024

5.0
Clean Up Industry
Reduce 12 gigatons of industrial emissions to 4 gigatons by 2050.
5.1
Steel ↓ 3 Gt

Reduce emissions from steel production 50% by 2030, 90% by 2040.

Updated April 2024
Code Red

1.9 metric tons of CO2 per metric ton of crude steel cast

Source: WorldSteel, 2023

5.2
Cement ↓ 2 Gt

Reduce emissions from cement production 25% by 2030, 90% by 2040.

Updated April 2024
Code Red

0.6 metric tons of CO2 per metric ton of cement produced

5.3
Other Industries ↓ 3 Gt

Reduce emissions from other industrial sources (primarily plastics, chemicals, paper, aluminum, glass, and apparel) 60% by 2050.

Updated April 2024
Code Red

5 gigatons emitted from other industries

Source: Climate TRACE, 2024

6.0
Remove Carbon
Remove 10 gigatons of carbon dioxide per year from the atmosphere.
6.1
Nature-Based Removal ↓ 5 Gt

Remove at least 3 gigatons per year by 2030 and 5 gigatons by 2040.

Updated April 2024
Code Red

0.02 gigatons of nature-based carbon removal being tracked

Source: Climate Focus, 2024

6.2
Engineered Removal ↓ 5 Gt

Remove at least 1 gigaton per year by 2030 and 5 gigatons by 2050.

Updated April 2024
Code Red

Currently, 0.0002 gigatons are being removed annually

Source: CDR.fyi, 2024

7.1
Net Zero Pledges

Each country commits to reach net zero by 2050.*

Updated April 2024
Insufficient Progress

China: net zero by 2060

U.S.: net zero by 2050

EU: net zero by 2050

India: net zero by 2070

Russia: net zero by 2060

7.2
Action Plans

Each country is on track to cut emissions in half by 2030.

Updated April 2024
Code Red

2030 trajectory:

China: 4°C

US: 3°C

EU: 2°C

India: 4°C

Russia: 4°C

 

Source: Climate Action Tracker, 2023

7.3
Carbon Price

National prices on greenhouse gases are set at a minimum of $75 per ton, rising 5% annually.

Updated April 2024
Insufficient Progress

Global average price: $33 per ton

23% of global emissions are covered by a carbon pricing mechanism

 

7.4
Subsidies

Direct subsidies to fossil fuel companies are eliminated.

Updated April 2024
Code Red

$1.3 trillion in explicit fossil fuel subsidies globally

7.5
Methane

Control flaring, prohibit venting, and mandate prompt capping of methane leaks.

Updated April 2024
Code Red

Countries representing 50% of global methane emissions have signed the global methane pledge

Source: Global Methane Pledge, 2024

7.6
Refrigerants

Countries commit to phasing out hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs).

Updated April 2024
On Track

All five major emitters have ratified the Kigali amendment

8.1
Voters

The climate crisis becomes a top-three issue.

Updated April 2024
Failing

Climate’s rank as top issue: seventh globally

Source: Ipsos, 2023

 

8.2
Government

A majority of key government officials support the drive to net zero.

Updated April 2024
Limited Data

Limited Data

8.3
Business

100% of Fortune Global 500 companies commit to reach net zero by 2050.

Updated April 2024
Failing

9.2% of Fortune Global 500 Companies have a net zero commitment

Source: Speed & Scale, 2024

Data is pulled from Fortune Global 500 websites to track emissions targets of each corporation

8.4
Education Equity

The world achieves universal primary and secondary education by 2040.

Updated April 2024
Failing

77% of students complete lower secondary school

Source: World Bank, 2023

8.5
Health Equity

The world eliminates gaps in pollution-linked mortality rates among racial and socioeconomic groups by 2040.

Updated April 2024
Failing

2.3 years (global average loss of life due to air pollution)

Source: Air Quality Life Index (AQLI), 2023

8.6
Economic Equity

The global clean energy transition creates 65 million fairly distributed new jobs by 2040, outpacing the loss of fossil fuel jobs.

Updated April 2024
Insufficient Progress

13.7 million people employed directly and indirectly

9.1
Batteries

10,000 GWh of batteries are produced annually at less than $80 per kWh by 2035.

Updated April 2024
On Track

Production: 2,592 per GWh

Price: $139 per kWh 

Source: BloombergNEF, 2023

9.2
Electricity

The cost of zero-emissions baseload power is lowered to $0.02 per kWh by 2030.

Updated April 2024
On Track

$0.03 per kWh for utility-scale onshore wind

$0.05 per kWh for utility-scale solar PV

9.3
Green Hydrogen

Cost of producing hydrogen from zero-emissions sources drops to $2 per kg by 2030, $1 per kg by 2040.

Updated April 2024
Failing

$2-$12 per kg, not currently produced at scale

Source: BloombergNEF, 2023

9.4
Carbon Removal

Cost of engineered carbon dioxide removal falls to $100 per ton by 2030, $50 per ton by 2040.

Updated April 2024
Code Red

Average of $715 per ton of carbon removed, not at scale

Source: CDR.fyi, 2024

9.5
Carbon-Neutral Fuels

Cost of synthetic fuel drops to $2.50 per gallon for jet fuel and $3.50 for gasoline by 2035.

Updated April 2024
Failing

Jet Fuel: $2.94 (Traditional) vs. $7.35 (Sustainable)

Vehicle Fuel: $4.02 (Diesel) vs. $4.76 (Biodiesel)

Source: International Air Transport Association, BloombergNEF, and Alternative Fuels Data Center, 2023

Diesel and Biodiesel are U.S. prices

10.1
Financial Incentives

Global government support and incentives for clean energy expand to $600 billion per year.

Updated April 2024
Limited Data

Limited Data

10.2
Government R&D

Public investment in sustainability research and development increases to $120 billion per year.

Updated April 2024
Insufficient Progress

Low carbon R&D globally: $23 billion

10.3
Venture Capital

Private investment into cleantech startups totals $50 billion per year.

Updated April 2024
Achieved

$51 billion invested in climate tech startups

Source: BloombergNEF, 2024

10.4
Project Financing

Clean energy project financing rises to $1 trillion per year.

Updated April 2024
On Track

Clean energy financing is at an all-time high, hitting $743 billion

Source: BloombergNEF, 2024

10.5
Philanthropy

Philanthropic dollars for tackling emissions grow to $30 billion per year.

Updated April 2024
Insufficient Progress

Less than 2% (between $8 billion and $13 billion) of philanthropic giving is dedicated to climate change mitigation

Welcome to Zeroing In by Speed & Scale, where we cut through the noise to deliver a data-driven update on progress toward net zero.

BIG INVESTMENTS BY BIG OIL… Chevron and Exxon announced new acquisitions this month, and experts say this is just the beginning of billion-dollar deals to come. Despite calls from attendees at Climate Week NYC to shut down the fossil fuel economy, big oil companies are doubling down.


BUT BIG PRICES COULD DETER FURTHER INVESTMENT. Geopolitical conflict has a significant impact on our path to net zero and may trigger a move away from oil. The conflict between Israel and Hamas could cause crude prices to rise to more than $150 a barrel. This friction in the Middle East comes on the heels of the biggest shock to commodity markets since the 1970s: Russia’s war with Ukraine. With its Russian oil supply cut off, Europe is turning away from oil and has invested significantly in renewables.

Big Picture

BUT, MIND THE GAP. Governments, in aggregate, still plan to produce more than double the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. The persistence of the global production gap, which tracks the discrepancy between governments’ planned fossil fuel production and global production levels consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C, puts the energy transition at risk.

Dive deeper into Speed & Scale

OKRs in the News

🚗 1.0 – Electrify Transportation

  • On the heels of a disastrous third quarter for one of the biggest EV players, Tesla, Toyota Motor Chairman Akio Toyoda said the EV industry faces an uphill battle. He has long denied that electric vehicles are the only way for the automotive industry to reduce emissions, saying “There are many ways to climb the mountain.”

  • Electric vehicle uptake faces major obstacles, despite rosy projections last year.

OKR Highlight


OKR Highlight: 1.0 Electrify Transportation

There will be bumps in the road as we move toward the end of the ICE-age. We’re keeping our eye on three big questions:

  • Can we get enough allied countries’ critical minerals to produce EVs without China?

  • Can the original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) profitably produce EVs?

  • Will consumer demand and gas-powered car phase-out policies in friendly states be enough to shift demand fully to EVs?

💡 2.0 – Decarbonize the Grid

  • U.S. domestic oil production hit an all-time high last week, despite the greening efforts by the Biden administration.

  • Wind is also falling behind as other renewables expand. Wood Mckenzie expects global offshore wind capacity additions to fall short of government targets. A surge in financing costs due to rising interest rates, along with higher prices for many of the materials that go into today’s giant turbines, has led some developers to back out of power sales or subsidy deals covering certain projects.

  • A bright future: Solar is set to overpower fossil fuels as the dominant global electricity source by 2050.

🐄 3.0 – Fix Food

  • Olive oil prices have more than doubled as extreme weather hit crops in Spain, Italy, and elsewhere—another food in jeopardy if we fail to address the climate crisis.

🌳 4.0 – Protect Nature

  • Our funky fungi friends may be stronger than we realize. Evolutionary biologists think that Mycorrhizal fungi helped old-growth trees respond to record-high temperatures and wildfires in Corsica.

🧹 6.0 – Remove Carbon

  • Every year, companies around the United States capture around 18 million metric tons of carbon dioxide from natural gas processing plants, oil refineries, and power plants. Unfortunately, most of it is used to extract more oil, in a controversial process known as “enhanced oil recovery.”

  • Two years into its operation, Climeworks’ Orca has a net annual carbon removal capacity—the amount Climeworks can sell to customers—closer to 3,000 tons. Located in Iceland, the plant was designed to capture 4,000 metric tons of carbon from the air per year. While this is equivalent to just three seconds of global emissions, improvements in design and technology from the project will allow the company to scale up more efficiently and at a lower cost.

  • A pioneer in corporate carbon credits is trying to restore faith in the much-criticized market by eliminating the concept of offsets, which directly ties carbon credits to reduced emissions. However, this potentially undercuts the main reason that many companies buy carbon credits in the first place.

🏛️ 7.0 – Win Politics and Policy

  • Fourth time’s not the charm. After three other Republicans crashed and burned, new House Speaker Mike Johnson brings a pro-oil, climate-skeptical record to the office.

  • A comprehensive new United Nations report finds plans for future oil, gas, and coal production by the top 20 largest energy-producing countries will cause us to blow past 1.5.

🏃 8.0 – Turn Movements into Action

  • Since we can’t manage what we can’t measure, the fact that 23,000 companies representing over 66% of global market capitalization are voluntarily reporting their environmental impact data is an important step toward cleaning up industry.

  • Meet the Guna—indigenous people of the San Blás archipelago off the coast of Panama—who are relocating to the mainland to escape rising sea levels. They’re one of the first populations of climate refugees from the Americas.

9.0 – Innovate

  • Nearly all adhesives are derived from petroleum, create permanent bonds, are a challenge to recycle, and prevent degradation in landfills. Researchers have found a way to create soya-oil-based glue to replace it, modeling the new product after the proteins that mussels use to stick to sea beds.

💰 10.0 – Invest

  • Efforts to increase regulation of bank capital requirements may have the inadvertent effect of limiting investment in clean energy projects, which often rely on large lenders to finance these initiatives.

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