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Welcome to Zeroing In by Speed & Scale, where we cut through the noise to deliver a data-driven update on progress toward net zero.

GOOD NEWS OUT OF CHINA: New data gives hope to the view that China may finally be approaching peak carbon emissions. In Q2 2024, China’s CO2 emissions fell by 1 percent, marking its first quarterly decrease since COVID-19. While this decline is partly due to a general economic slowdown, it also reflects the country’s massive deployment of clean energy.

Globally, while we’re encouraged by a 50 percent year-over-year increase in renewable energy capacity in 2023, the picture remains mixed. Rising energy demand and continued expansion of fossil fuel infrastructure are making the clean energy transition more challenging. For the world to reach net zero by 2050, China and other nations will need to strengthen their commitments and accelerate their deployment of clean energy while simultaneously phasing out fossil fuels.

OKRs in the News

🚗 1.0 – Electrify Transportation

• NASCAR Joins the EV Race: NASCAR unveiled a $1.5 million prototype of its fully electric, high-performance race car. The motorsport series has committed to achieving net zero operational emissions by 2035 (Associated Press).

• Renewable Fuel Surcharges: Lufthansa, Europe’s largest airline, announced it will invest more in alternative, lower-emission fuels. By implementing modest ticket surcharges, between about $1 and $77 ( €1 and €72), Lufthansa will be able to take a crucial step toward net zero (Bloomberg).

💡 2.0 – Decarbonize the Grid

• Chinese Fusion: China is boosting investment in atomic fusion in hopes of making it a commercially practical energy source. Emulating a 2020 roadmap laid out by U.S. engineers and scientists, China increased spending to around $1.5 billion per year on fusion energy, nearly twice the U.S. government’s fusion budget (Wall Street Journal).

• Domestic Solar Manufacturing Is Rising: U.S. manufacturing capacity of solar panels set a record in the first quarter of 2024, according to Solar Energy Industries Association and Wood Mackenzie. With an additional 11 GW brought online, installed capacity now totals 200 GW, with another 40 GW planned by the end of the year (DailyEnergyInsider).

• Solar Surge: In Q1 2024, U.S. solar panel manufacturing capacity surged by 71 percent, reaching a 200 GW milestone. The U.S. solar industry is projected to install another 40 GW in 2024, driven by significant utility-scale market growth (Wood Mackenzie).

• Nuclear Solutions: A Washington Post Op-Ed argues that a new law to streamline the permitting process for U.S. nuclear reactors could set the stage for an energy revolution. Most nuclear reactors now in operation in the U.S. are nearing their retirement date. Despite a recent capacity increase from Plant Vogtle in Georgia, U.S. nuclear power energy is projected to drop 20 percent by 2040 (Washington Post).

🐄 3.0 – Fix Food

• The New 🐮 Burp Tax: After months of negotiations, Denmark became the first country to tax livestock emissions, which account for 11 percent of global emissions. The tax will be used to support the livestock industry’s green transition, charging farmers about $17 (€16) per metric ton of carbon dioxide emitted by their animals, which could amount to almost $107 (€100) per year per cow (The Guardian).

• Root Causes of Food Inflation: Amid constantly shifting weather patterns, farmers are finding it difficult to maintain consistent crop yields. The dynamic could drive up the global cost of food by more than three percent per year over the next decade (Financial Times).

• The McPlant Is McDead: McDonald’s has abandoned its first plant-based burger, the McPlant. The McPlant proved to be much less successful than initial testing seemed to indicate, with sales lagging behind plant-based options from competitors Burger King and Taco Bell (Delish).

🌳 4.0 – Protect Nature

• Boiling the Oceans: Over 40 percent of the planet’s oceans are experiencing marine heat waves. This abnormal rise in ocean temperatures is devastating coral reefs, marine life, and temperature-regulating ocean systems. By the end of the century, unless protective measures are implemented, 90 percent of all the excess heat trapped in the atmosphere will seep into the oceans, resulting in permanent marine heat waves (New York Times).

🧱 5.0 – Clean Up Industry

• Smelting Down Fossil Fuel Emissions: Central Aluminum is seeking to construct the United State’s largest smelter—an industrial facility that extracts metal from ore—using renewable energy to make it cost-effective. The facility will use solar and wind to save money on electricity, taking advantage of renewable energy tax breaks in the Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act (Wall Street Journal).

🧹 6.0 – Remove Carbon

• Cleaner Water, Cleaner Air: A new water treatment plant near Los Angeles will turn wastewater into drinking water while capturing carbon from the air. Capture6 is using massive amounts of brine from the treatment plant to absorb CO2 and produce a carbonate useful for synthesizing biodegradable chemicals (Fast Company).

• Carbon Removal at Sea: In 2027, Equatic is planning to bring online North America’s first commercial-scale, ocean-based carbon dioxide removal plant. Through a process called seawater electrolysis, the company will help remove carbon from the atmosphere 99,000 times faster than the oceans and produce hydrogen-based fuel as a byproduct (Business Insider).

🏛️ 7.0 – Win Politics and Policy

• Clean Energy Is Growing, but Is It Enough?: The U.S. has experienced a nearly 60 percent surge in clean energy investments over the past four years thanks to reforms enacted over the past four years. While the U.S. share of renewable energy is expected to rise from 22% in 2023 to 34% by 2028, more funding and urgency will be needed to achieve the U.S. goal of 100 percent carbon-free electricity generation by 2035 (IEA).

• Blowing Past Renewable Energy Records: After 20 years of development, the largest renewable energy project in the Western hemisphere is set to become operational in 2026. SunZia is a large wind farm in New Mexico with transmission lines spanning 500 miles, reaching as far as Arizona. At peak generation, it will provide one percent of total U.S. electricity needs. (The New York Times).

OKR Highlight

The Bipartisan Policy Center recently issued a new guide for implementing an Emission Performance Border Carbon Adjustment (EPBCA) in the U.S., a policy mechanism designed to impose a fee on imports based on their carbon emissions. The report outlines strategies for drawing political support from both sides of the aisle. By focusing on domestic manufacturing, securing supply chains, pushing back against China and Russia, and reducing global greenhouse gas emissions, an EPBCA might garner widespread support from both Democratic and Republican policymakers. See the full report here: Bipartisan Policy Center.

🏃 8.0 – Turn Movements into Action

• Artificial Emissions: Google reported a 13% rise in its own emissions in 2023, largely stemming from AI-related electricity use. Still, Google maintains it is staunchly committed to net zero and vows to run on “carbon-free energy” by 2030. The company also believes that AI could help reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by 5-10 percent by 2030 (GreenBiz).

• Unrealistic Net-Zero Ambitions: The hedge fund Bridgewater Associates found that only around one third of companies in high-emitting sectors have ambitious and credible transition plans to reach their 2030 net-zero goals (Bridgewater Associates).

⚡ 9.0 – Innovate!

• China Charges Ahead: Chinese companies CATL and BYD are dominating the EV battery market with more than half of global production market share. They also control global supply chains for 90 percent of the materials used in positive electrodes, such as lithium and nickel, and 97 percent of materials used in negative electrodes, such as graphite (Wall Street Journal).

💰 10.0 – Invest!

• More Scrutiny, Less Spending: In the first half of 2024, investment in climate startups fell by 20 percent from the first half of 2023 and 41 percent from the second half. While political and macroeconomic instability is partly to blame, the drop also reflects increased investor scrutiny of climate projects (Sightline Climate and Bloomberg).

• Breakthrough Energy’s New Big Bucks: Bill Gates’ Breakthrough Energy has raised over $839 million for a new climate fund that will focus on five key areas, including electricity, transportation, manufacturing, buildings, and food and agriculture. Since 2015, Gates’s Breakthrough Energy has invested $2.2 billion in more than 160 startups (Utility Dive).

• Breaking Through the Investment Landscape: Breakthrough Energy’s Catalyst platform released a list of “12 Keys to Scaling Up” for climate startups seeking to build their products from pilot to commercial scale and unlock cheaper sources of funding. The guide serves Catalyst’s mission to accelerate the deployment of emerging climate technologies (Breakthrough Energy).

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