Welcome to Zeroing In by Speed & Scale, where we cut through the noise to deliver a data-driven update on progress toward net zero.

TO MANAGE AI-RELATED ENERGY NEEDS AND MEET CLIMATE GOALS, TECHNOLOGY COMPANIES LOOK TO NUCLEAR: Over the last two months, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and other tech giants have sprinted to invest a combined $59 billion in nuclear power. In doing so, they will gain access to 24/7, reliable, clean energy to help address growing demand from their data centers. Microsoft is reviving the shuttered Three Mile Island nuclear plant, while Amazon and Google are backing the development of new small modular reactors. These reactors could be more cost-effective, more efficient, and more scalable than traditional nuclear plants—all points of great significance.

Big Tech’s embrace of nuclear energy—which already provides nearly 20 percent of the nation’s electricity—is reinvigorating the industry while keeping tech companies on track to meet their climate goals. While the U.S. operates 94 reactors, more than any other country, the industry has struggled with costly project delays and cancellations as well as negative perceptions around storage, disposal, and safety. Nuclear power needs to be a cornerstone in the drive to reach net zero in time. The next decade will be crucial, with progress in technology, cost efficiency, and consumer trust critical to its growth over the next decade.

2023 Nuclear generation by country (source: World Nuclear Association, IAEA PRIS)

Curious to learn more about nuclear energy? Check out these resources:

• IEA: Nuclear Power

• University of Michigan Center for Sustainable Systems: Nuclear energy factsheet

• U.S. Department of Energy: What is nuclear energy?

• Third Way 20×35: Advanced Nuclear Technologies

Nuclear advocate and influencer @isodope posted a 10-day series on AI and nuclear energy. Check out @isodope on TikTok or Instagram.

OKRs in the News

🚗 1.0 – Electrify Transportation

• BYD Charges Ahead: BYD, the Chinese EV giant, is rapidly expanding into global markets, building plants in 10 countries and selling EVs in 95 markets. Despite massive tariffs and geopolitical challenges in the U.S. and EU, BYD’s low-cost, tech-packed EVs are disrupting the global auto industry, surpassing Tesla as the largest seller of EVs in late 2023 (Bloomberg).

• EU Stays the Course: The EU will uphold its 2035 ban on new petrol cars, despite opposition from automakers and some member states to delay or modify the law. This move aligns with the bloc’s climate goals, which aim to cut emissions by 55 percent by 2030 and reach net zero by 2050. The biggest hurdles are pushback from automakers struggling with falling EV sales and competition from Chinese manufacturers (Financial Times).

• Veterans Fuel EV Workforce: Veterans are helping to fill critical workforce gaps at U.S. EV and battery plants. With federal incentives driving factory growth, Veterans are supporting a U.S. push to strengthen EV supply chains and reduce reliance on China (Bloomberg).

💡 2.0 – Decarbonize the Grid

• LNG’s Dirty Little Secret: A new study found that liquefied natural gas (LNG) creates 33 percent more greenhouse gas emissions than coal over a 20-year period, largely due to its energy-intensive processes. The study challenges the idea that LNG is a cleaner alternative to coal, and argues that the global focus should be on moving away from both gas and coal to prioritize truly clean energy sources (Energy Science & Engineering and Mother Jones).

  
  

Full lifecycle greenhouse gas footprint for LNG based on the average European electric grid (Source: Energy Science & Engineering)

Note: The shortest cruise refers to transporting LNG from the Gulf of Mexico loading port to the United Kingdom, while the longest cruise is for a voyage from the Gulf of Mexico to Shanghai, China, not going through the Panama Canal.

• Renewables Surge but Fall Short: Renewable energy capacity is expected to grow by over 5,500 gigawatts by 2030 and generate nearly half of global electricity, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). While impressive, this progress falls short of the goal made at COP28 to triple capacity. Meanwhile, China is projected to be responsible for nearly 60% of all new renewable energy capacity installed by 2030 (International Energy Agency and Wall Street Journal).

🐄 3.0 – Fix Food

• Cheddar Without the Moo: Israeli company DairyX has developed yeast strains that can produce stretchy, creamy dairy cheese without cows. They do this by creating key milk proteins that come together in a way that mimics the texture of traditional cheese, something plant-based cheeses have struggled to achieve. DairyX aims to make this sustainable alternative available to consumers by 2027 (The Guardian).

• Food For Thought: Despite the significant impact of food policy on health, the economy, and the environment, it has received little attention in the 2024 presidential election. According to Mark Bittman, a lecturer on health policy at Columbia University, reducing corporate influence in agriculture is essential to creating a more equitable and climate-friendly food system. He urges leaders to prioritize food policy reforms that will benefit both public health and the environment, such as universal healthy school meals and sustainable farming (New York Times).

🌳 4.0 – Protect Nature

• Amazon’s Deep Trouble: Brazil is dredging the world’s largest river, the Amazon, as record droughts, driven by climate change, have caused water levels to plummet, threatening transportation and essential supply routes. While dredging could significantly harm the Amazon’s fragile ecosystems, it is critical to provide a temporary solution to maintain the flow of food, medicine, and people along the waterway (New York Times).

• Biodiversity Check: Nearly 200 countries met in Colombia to review progress on the Global Biodiversity Framework signed in 2022, which seeks to protect 30 percent of land and seas and raise $700 billion for conservation. Despite this commitment, global financial flows for biodiversity currently total around $208 billion annually (Bloomberg and Bloomberg NEF).

• Up in Smoke—Crisis of Carbon Sinks: Carbon emissions from forest fires have surged 60 percent globally since 2001. Sparked by extreme heat, dry conditions, and an increase in lightning storms, the burning is especially prevalent in boreal forests in northern regions. This development threatens forests’ role as natural carbon sinks that absorb and store carbon—and as a result, it undermines progress toward climate goals. We need better fire management and prevention methods to reduce the frequency and intensity of these fires and preserve their carbon-absorbing ability (New York Times and Science).

• Fruit of the Future: As climate change threatens traditional crops like apples and peaches, small farmers are hedging their bets by turning to a more exotic but resilient fruit: the pawpaw. Native to North America, pawpaws tolerate extreme weather and thrive in warming climates (Washington Post).

🧱 5.0 – Clean Up Industry

• Concrete Plans For A Solid Future: State and local governments, along with major companies, made new commitments to cut emissions in construction materials, including cement and steel. The state of New York aims to reduce concrete emissions by 30 percent by 2028, while Los Angeles is targeting a 15 percent cut. Other key players, including concrete producer Heidelberg Materials, are committing to lowering their carbon footprint by 25 percent by 2030 (E&E News).

• Bin There, Done That: People in the U.S. generate immense amounts of waste, but much of it could be diverted from landfills by providing accessible recycling guidelines. More clearly stated information and disposal options can drive broader participation in mitigating the climate impact of high-emissions materials (The New Yorker).

• Cobalt Rush For Green Energy: The Biden administration is in talks with at least three U.S. firms to discuss acquiring Congo’s major cobalt producer, Chemaf, to secure supplies for electric vehicle batteries and strengthen the U.S. clean energy supply chain. The goal is to reduce reliance on China, which dominates global cobalt production (Wall Street Journal).

🧹 6.0 – Remove Carbon

• Carbon Capture Conundrum: In 2022, the U.S. committed $3.5 billion to develop carbon removal hubs. But a lack of demand for CO2 removal, beyond what’s driven by voluntary climate commitments from companies, puts the industry’s future at risk, even with subsidies. Industry experts urge the federal government to redirect a portion of carbon removal funding from direct-air-capture (DAC) plants to purchases of greenhouse-gas removals instead (MIT Technology Review).

• Canada’s Carbon Cash Commitment: As part of its Greening Government strategy to support a net-zero emissions goal for government operations by 2050, Canada will invest at least $10 million in carbon dioxide removal services by 2030. The government also plans to collaborate with public and private leaders to advance carbon removal solutions (Government of Canada).

🏛️ 7.0 – Win Politics And Policy

• Energy Balancing Act: Dean of the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability Arun Majumdar argues that effective energy policies must balance three key aspects of security: the economic, the national, and the environmental. To ensure long-term sustainability, short-term actions could be the key to reducing carbon emissions: diversifying energy imports for security; transitioning to cleaner energy sources; enhancing efficiency; and electrifying core sectors of the economy (Hoover Institution).

• Oil’s Clean Energy Pivot: Oil companies are pushing the GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump to keep key parts of the Inflation Reduction Act. The companies are especially protective of project tax credits in renewable fuel, carbon capture, and hydrogen, which are vital for billions in planned investments. Despite initial opposition, Exxon and Occidental now enjoy these incentives to support clean energy initiatives (Wall Street Journal).

• EPA’s Emissions Power Play: The U.S. Supreme Court allowed the EPA’s new emissions limits to move forward for the power sector, which accounts for about a quarter of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. Despite opposition from businesses and Republican-led states citing high compliance costs, the decision pushes the industry toward cleaner technologies (Bloomberg).

• Climate: The New Battleground: The U.S. military has responded to 41 U.S. climate-related disasters in the past year. Recognizing climate change as a national security threat, the military has integrated climate preparedness into its operations. It has invested in resilient infrastructure, renewable energy, and disaster response, while relying on bipartisan support to continue adapting to the growing risks (Politico).

OKR Highlight

Global annual greenhouse gas emissions reached an all-time high in 2023, according to the United Nations’ latest annual report. Moreover, the UN says emissions are not on track to decline much, if at all, over the rest of this decade.

To get back on track for global warming of no more than 1.5°C, greenhouse gas emissions cuts need to be cut 42 percent by 2030, and 57 percent by 2035. That’s a lofty goal for countries to meet ahead of COP30 in Brazil, with the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) due for submission in early 2025. While the target may seem intimidating, it is crucial for countries to step up the plate to avoid a temperature rise of up to 2.6-3.1°C in the year 2100.

With rapid and large-scale deployment of solar and wind energy, and protection of our forest carbon sinks, achieving the 1.5°C target is still technically possible. But it will require urgent, coordinated government action, enhanced international collaboration, and a six-fold increase in mitigation investment, especially from G20 nations. Unless we get all hands on deck, as stated in the report “the Paris Agreement target of holding global warming to 1.5°C will be dead within a few years and 2°C will take its place in the intensive care unit.”

🏃 8.0 – Turn Movements Into Action

• Can’t Beat the Heat: Arizona residents faced soaring electricity bills this summer from rate hikes and record heat, with the electric utility Arizona Public Service reporting that this summer was the hottest on record for Phoenix. With the state’s voters increasingly concerned about the impact on their wallets, candidates are promising to provide relief. The Arizona Corporation Commission, three of whose members are up for re-election this fall, recently approved a utility rate increase that is estimated to increase monthly bills by 12-14 percent (Wall Street Journal).

• Canada’s Climate Disclosures: The Canadian government will use tax credits to incentivize up to $140 billion of annual investments to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. They also announced new sustainable investment guidelines and mandatory climate disclosures for large companies to boost private capital and ensure transparency (Government of Canada).

⚡ 9.0 – Innovate!

• Battery Race Charge-Up: Varun Sivaram and Noah Gordon argue that the U.S. is falling behind in the global battery race, with ninety percent of its recent $30 billion investment focused on lithium-ion technology, which is dominated by China. To compete in this arena, the U.S. must leapfrog China and shift its focus to next-generation solid-state batteries, which offer better performance and reduce reliance on Chinese materials. A three-pronged strategy to boost production incentives, government procurement, and innovation funding is critical to securing U.S. leadership in battery technology (Foreign Policy).

• Fusion Power Showdown: China is investing twice as much as the U.S. and producing 10 times as many PhDs in nuclear fusion science, with the goal of building the first industrial prototype reactor by 2035. While the U.S. leads in private investment, industry experts stress that government support and public-private partnerships, similar to those in the space sector, are essential for the U.S. to stay competitive in the race to commercialize fusion energy (Wall Street Journal).

• Chile’s AI Grid Boost: Chile’s grid operator, Coordinador Electrico Nacional (CEN), is using Tapestry’s AI-powered Grid Planning Tool to reduce simulation time by 86 percent. CEN is running 30 simulations simultaneously, a major improvement over legacy tools. By enabling 20-year grid expansion planning, this tool helps CEN optimize hundreds of millions in public funds for a reliable, renewable-powered grid, advancing Chile’s goal of a zero-carbon grid by 2050 (X.company).

💰 10.0 – Invest!

• Rio’s Lithium Liftoff: Rio Tinto is buying Arcadium Lithium for $6.7 billion, aiming to capitalize on the growth of EVs and will become the third-largest lithium producer in the world. This purchase marks the largest lithium acquisition to date, and despite falling lithium prices, Rio sees long-term value in the material to produce EV batteries for the energy transition (Financial Times).

• Clean Tech Cash Surge: Bill Gates’ energy company reports that the climate tech sector entered its deployment phase in 2024. More than $239 billion in public and private capital has been invested in clean energy markets this year to date, a 40 percent increase over 2022. Areas of progress include scaled innovations in sustainable aviation fuels, hydrogen, and industrial decarbonization (Breakthrough Energy).

• Election Clouds Green Bets: Investors are cautious ahead of the 2024 U.S. election and potential shifts in climate policy. In Q3, U.S. climate tech startups raised $2.6 billion, down 39 percent from Q3 2023. (Bloomberg).

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